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<p>Rapid urbanization profoundly reshapes vegetation dynamics in arid regions, yet its ecological effects—characterized by the coexistence of “greening” and “degradation”—exhibit complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In response, this study develops an integrated framework that couples high-resolution Global Artificial Impervious Area (GAIA) data with a dynamic urban-rural gradient to precisely capture the evolution of urbanization footprints across 40 major cities in China’s arid regions from 2000 to 2020. Central to our methodology is the Urban Background Difference (UBD) index, which isolates the net anthropogenic signal of urbanization by removing natural background fluctuations driven by climate variability. Results demonstrate that vegetation greenness follows a robust “inverted U-shaped” spatial pattern along the urban-rural gradient, with peak greening occurring in peri-urban transition zones rather than urban cores. A significant geographical divergence is observed: oasis cities west of the Zhangye-Xining line show a stable “Green Island” effect (e.g., Kashi), while eastern steppe cities often face a “Replacement Deficit” due to the encroachment of high-quality natural grasslands (e.g., Hulunbuir). Temporally, a policy-driven inflection point in UBD emerged around 2012, reflecting the macro-impact of national ecological zoning and the “Main Function Zone Plan.” Mechanistic interpretation via XGBoost-SHAP highlights that the initial ecological matrix (desert percentage) is the primary determinant of greening potential (39.78% contribution), while socioeconomic investment and compact urban morphology act as “amplifiers” that decouple vegetation growth from natural precipitation constraints. This study elucidates the “Constraint-Release” mechanism of urban vegetation in water-scarce environments, providing a scientific basis for adaptive urban planning and ecological restoration strategies in global arid lands.</p>

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Net effect of urbanization on vegetation dynamics in city surrounding zones in China’s arid regions: spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Junnan Gan,
  • Hongzhan Sun,
  • Ashraf Dewan,
  • Haoyan Zhang,
  • Xiaoyan Cao,
  • Yaowen Xie

摘要

Rapid urbanization profoundly reshapes vegetation dynamics in arid regions, yet its ecological effects—characterized by the coexistence of “greening” and “degradation”—exhibit complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In response, this study develops an integrated framework that couples high-resolution Global Artificial Impervious Area (GAIA) data with a dynamic urban-rural gradient to precisely capture the evolution of urbanization footprints across 40 major cities in China’s arid regions from 2000 to 2020. Central to our methodology is the Urban Background Difference (UBD) index, which isolates the net anthropogenic signal of urbanization by removing natural background fluctuations driven by climate variability. Results demonstrate that vegetation greenness follows a robust “inverted U-shaped” spatial pattern along the urban-rural gradient, with peak greening occurring in peri-urban transition zones rather than urban cores. A significant geographical divergence is observed: oasis cities west of the Zhangye-Xining line show a stable “Green Island” effect (e.g., Kashi), while eastern steppe cities often face a “Replacement Deficit” due to the encroachment of high-quality natural grasslands (e.g., Hulunbuir). Temporally, a policy-driven inflection point in UBD emerged around 2012, reflecting the macro-impact of national ecological zoning and the “Main Function Zone Plan.” Mechanistic interpretation via XGBoost-SHAP highlights that the initial ecological matrix (desert percentage) is the primary determinant of greening potential (39.78% contribution), while socioeconomic investment and compact urban morphology act as “amplifiers” that decouple vegetation growth from natural precipitation constraints. This study elucidates the “Constraint-Release” mechanism of urban vegetation in water-scarce environments, providing a scientific basis for adaptive urban planning and ecological restoration strategies in global arid lands.