<p>Sediment load variations are a key component of eco-hydrological processes and are jointly driven by climate change and intensified human activities. Given that hydrological-sedimentary dynamics in the Yellow River Basin profoundly affect China’s ecological security, quantitatively distinguishing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to sediment load changes is of particular importance. To address this, climatic and anthropogenic contributions to sediment load variations across river reaches were quantified by integrating the double mass curve (DMC) method with elastic coefficient analysis based on the fractal-Budyko framework, using hydrological, meteorological, and anthropogenic datasets from the Yellow River mainstem spanning 1961–2022. In this study, climate change is mainly reflected through variations in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, whereas human activities are defined as anthropogenic interventions affecting sediment transport through land-surface change and water-sediment regulation. The main findings are as follows. Except for the reach above Tangnaihai, sediment loads along the mainstem have decreased significantly over the past six decades, with reductions during summer and autumn dominating interannual variations. In terms of water-sediment relationships, runoff exerted a stronger influence on sediment load than precipitation; however, its effect weakened over time, indicating intensifying anthropogenic interference. Attribution analysis shows that during 1981–2000, climate change dominated sediment variations in the Tangnaihai headwater region, with contribution rates of 88.15–98.45%, whereas human activities were the primary drivers in the mid- and downstream reaches, contributing 84.67–93.62%. During 2001–2022, the contribution of human activities further increased across the basin, particularly in the Tangnaihai headwater region, where it reached 66.41–72.67%. Overall, the Yellow River Basin exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity in sediment dynamics, with a progressive shift from climate-dominated to human-dominated controls.</p>

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Quantitative identification of the impact of human activities and climate change on sediment load in the Yellow River Basin of China

  • Chaomei Wang,
  • Baofu Li,
  • Tao Pan,
  • Yanfeng Chen,
  • Zhaodan Cao,
  • Yanhua Qin,
  • Fan Yang

摘要

Sediment load variations are a key component of eco-hydrological processes and are jointly driven by climate change and intensified human activities. Given that hydrological-sedimentary dynamics in the Yellow River Basin profoundly affect China’s ecological security, quantitatively distinguishing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to sediment load changes is of particular importance. To address this, climatic and anthropogenic contributions to sediment load variations across river reaches were quantified by integrating the double mass curve (DMC) method with elastic coefficient analysis based on the fractal-Budyko framework, using hydrological, meteorological, and anthropogenic datasets from the Yellow River mainstem spanning 1961–2022. In this study, climate change is mainly reflected through variations in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, whereas human activities are defined as anthropogenic interventions affecting sediment transport through land-surface change and water-sediment regulation. The main findings are as follows. Except for the reach above Tangnaihai, sediment loads along the mainstem have decreased significantly over the past six decades, with reductions during summer and autumn dominating interannual variations. In terms of water-sediment relationships, runoff exerted a stronger influence on sediment load than precipitation; however, its effect weakened over time, indicating intensifying anthropogenic interference. Attribution analysis shows that during 1981–2000, climate change dominated sediment variations in the Tangnaihai headwater region, with contribution rates of 88.15–98.45%, whereas human activities were the primary drivers in the mid- and downstream reaches, contributing 84.67–93.62%. During 2001–2022, the contribution of human activities further increased across the basin, particularly in the Tangnaihai headwater region, where it reached 66.41–72.67%. Overall, the Yellow River Basin exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity in sediment dynamics, with a progressive shift from climate-dominated to human-dominated controls.