<p>Understanding the impacts of climate change on vegetation is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development. In this paper, how temperature, precipitation, drought, and vegetation cover change, the relationships between vegetation cover and climate variables, and the effects of vegetation lag and future change were investigated. The findings indicate that (1) in most areas of northern Xinjiang, there is more vegetation than in southern Xinjiang. In the Yili River Valley and northern Xinjiang, higher precipitation, lower temperatures, and higher humidity are present. (2) Among the different vegetation types, high vegetation cover grassland, sparse woodland, shrub forest, other woodland, and low vegetation cover grassland show a positive association with precipitation and the drought index, and paddy field and dry land show a negative correlation with temperature. (3) Temperature and precipitation have a delayed influence on vegetation, especially in most areas of the Yili Valley region, where there is no lag effect on precipitation changes, and most areas in northern, southern, and eastern Xinjiang have a lag period of 1 to 3 months. In the SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios, the vegetation cover generally increases, and the reaction of vegetation to precipitation mostly has a 3-month lag period but essentially has no lag period for temperature. This research aids in the understanding of vegetation dynamics and provides guidelines for enhancing the ecological environment in arid regions.</p>