<p>The Persian leopard (<i>Panthera pardus saxicolor</i>) is a keystone and endangered species in Iran, facing significant threats due to climate change, habitat degradation, and declining prey availability. This study aims to identify suitable habitats for the Persian leopard in Fars Province, located in southern Iran, and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on its future distribution. Habitat suitability modeling was conducted using MaxEnt software, incorporating a range of environmental variables, including topographic, climatic, land use/land cover, and anthropogenic factors. Additionally, to enhance model accuracy, the current and projected distributions of key prey species, such as wild goats and sheep, were incorporated. According to the results, approximately 12.53% of the total area of Fars Province (equivalent to 15,381.86 km<sup>2</sup>) is currently classified as suitable habitat for the Persian leopard. To predict the effects of climate change by the year 2070, two general circulation models (MRI-ESM2-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR) were applied under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change is likely to cause considerable shifts in habitat suitability, with an estimated loss of 23.46 to 39.81% of suitable habitats in Fars Province by 2070. These findings highlight the urgent need to revise current conservation and management strategies, emphasizing the identification and protection of critical habitats in the face of anticipated climate impacts.</p>

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Climate change impacts on future habitat suitability of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Southern Iran

  • Ali Asghar Naghipour,
  • Borhan Yousefi,
  • Marzieh Moradi

摘要

The Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) is a keystone and endangered species in Iran, facing significant threats due to climate change, habitat degradation, and declining prey availability. This study aims to identify suitable habitats for the Persian leopard in Fars Province, located in southern Iran, and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on its future distribution. Habitat suitability modeling was conducted using MaxEnt software, incorporating a range of environmental variables, including topographic, climatic, land use/land cover, and anthropogenic factors. Additionally, to enhance model accuracy, the current and projected distributions of key prey species, such as wild goats and sheep, were incorporated. According to the results, approximately 12.53% of the total area of Fars Province (equivalent to 15,381.86 km2) is currently classified as suitable habitat for the Persian leopard. To predict the effects of climate change by the year 2070, two general circulation models (MRI-ESM2-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR) were applied under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change is likely to cause considerable shifts in habitat suitability, with an estimated loss of 23.46 to 39.81% of suitable habitats in Fars Province by 2070. These findings highlight the urgent need to revise current conservation and management strategies, emphasizing the identification and protection of critical habitats in the face of anticipated climate impacts.