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<p><i>Osmanthus cooperi</i> Hemsl. is a plant unique to southern China, possessing significant medicinal and ornamental value. Based on 103 distribution records and 16 bioclimatic variables, this study used the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution range of the species in China based on model optimization. The optimized MaxEnt model, with RM = 3.5 and FC = LQHPT settings, generated the most precise predictions. The research assessed the contribution of environmental variables and analyzed the factors limiting its distribution. The model revealed that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14, 57.7%) was the dominant factor, followed by precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 6.6%) and annual precipitation (Bio12, 9.5%). Under current climatic conditions, the potential biogeographic distribution range of <i>O. cooperi</i> is mainly concentrated in central and eastern China, with sporadic distribution in Taiwan, southwestern and southern China, with a total suitable habitat area of 68.82 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. Stable habitats are most extensive and contiguous in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces. Under the three future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitat area for <i>O. cooperi</i> is projected to expand overall by −0.74 to 5.65%, and the expanded areas will be mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu, eastern Guizhou and northern Guangdong. Additionally, the suitable area is expected to shift slightly toward higher elevations and extend southwestward and northwestward. These findings provide a scientific basis for adjusting management and conservation strategies to address climate change and to achieve the conservation and sustainable use of <i>O. cooperi</i> within its suitable habitats.</p>

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Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Osmanthus cooperi in China under climate change using MaxEnt modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

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  • Jiaqi Zhou,
  • Yilin Li,
  • Zhirun Yu,
  • Lin Chen

摘要

Osmanthus cooperi Hemsl. is a plant unique to southern China, possessing significant medicinal and ornamental value. Based on 103 distribution records and 16 bioclimatic variables, this study used the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution range of the species in China based on model optimization. The optimized MaxEnt model, with RM = 3.5 and FC = LQHPT settings, generated the most precise predictions. The research assessed the contribution of environmental variables and analyzed the factors limiting its distribution. The model revealed that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14, 57.7%) was the dominant factor, followed by precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 6.6%) and annual precipitation (Bio12, 9.5%). Under current climatic conditions, the potential biogeographic distribution range of O. cooperi is mainly concentrated in central and eastern China, with sporadic distribution in Taiwan, southwestern and southern China, with a total suitable habitat area of 68.82 × 104 km2. Stable habitats are most extensive and contiguous in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces. Under the three future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitat area for O. cooperi is projected to expand overall by −0.74 to 5.65%, and the expanded areas will be mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu, eastern Guizhou and northern Guangdong. Additionally, the suitable area is expected to shift slightly toward higher elevations and extend southwestward and northwestward. These findings provide a scientific basis for adjusting management and conservation strategies to address climate change and to achieve the conservation and sustainable use of O. cooperi within its suitable habitats.