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<p>Land surface temperature (LST) is a key indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem and agrometeorological change. Based on MODIS LST products, meteorological and socio-economic data, this paper explored the spatiotemporal variations of LST and its influencing factors in Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2020. Results show that the mean annual LST in Guangdong decreased at a rate of −0.25&#xa0;°C/10a from 2003 to 2020, with 25.7% of the area experiencing warming trends and 74.3% cooling trends, respectively. Areas with low LST values were mainly in Northern Guangdong, while high values were located in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and coastal regions. Hurst exponent analysis indicates that the future LST trends will be predominantly weakly anti-persistent, and 54.80% of the area shows anti-persistent decreases, indicating a potential shift from cooling to warming. Elevation and vegetation cover were the primary influencing factors, with explanatory powers of 62.4% and 50.3%, respectively, and the interaction of factors enhanced their influences on the spatial distribution of LST.</p>

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Spatiotemporal variation of land surface temperature and its influencing factors in Guangdong Province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月2日

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  • Zhihui Mao,
  • Lili Li,
  • Ziyang Chen,
  • Linkun Zhong

摘要

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem and agrometeorological change. Based on MODIS LST products, meteorological and socio-economic data, this paper explored the spatiotemporal variations of LST and its influencing factors in Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2020. Results show that the mean annual LST in Guangdong decreased at a rate of −0.25 °C/10a from 2003 to 2020, with 25.7% of the area experiencing warming trends and 74.3% cooling trends, respectively. Areas with low LST values were mainly in Northern Guangdong, while high values were located in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and coastal regions. Hurst exponent analysis indicates that the future LST trends will be predominantly weakly anti-persistent, and 54.80% of the area shows anti-persistent decreases, indicating a potential shift from cooling to warming. Elevation and vegetation cover were the primary influencing factors, with explanatory powers of 62.4% and 50.3%, respectively, and the interaction of factors enhanced their influences on the spatial distribution of LST.