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<p>The southwest coast of Nigeria (SWCN) is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding, especially during the rainy seasons, significantly affecting coastal communities along this coast. Therefore, this study uses geospatial techniques to provide information about coastline changes in the SWCN. The coastlines from different years were displayed to show the relationship between the classified coastline changes (modeled data) and the ground truth data, generated using historical Landsat images from 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024. Changes in the coastline over the years were assessed using two statistical methods: Linear Regression Rate (LRR) for the rate of change and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) for the change in distance. Coastline forecasts were also produced using the historical data by applying the Kalman filter within the BETA shoreline forecasting tool in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS_v5). The results indicate that erosion has exceeded accretion along the SWCN from 1984 to 2024, with a total erosion rate of −17,350.64&#xa0;m/year, impacting a stretch of 719,436.95&#xa0;m. Conversely, the total accretion rate was 12,491.45&#xa0;m/year, covering a stretch of 481,674.11&#xa0;m. The forecast for 2034 and 2044 suggests that most of Ondo State’s coastline will continue to erode, while Lagos State’s coast will experience both erosion and accretion, and Ogun State’s coast will primarily accrete, based on the shoreline trends observed between 1984 and 2024. These findings highlight significant changes in the SWCN and will be valuable for developing guidelines for the sustainable management of Nigeria’s southwestern coast.</p>

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Geospatial analysis of shoreline changes along the Southwestern coast of Nigeria over the past four decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Lateef Olaranti Opoola,
  • Matthew Olomolatan Ibitoye,
  • Akinola Adesuji Komolafe,
  • Olusegun Adekoyejo Dada

摘要

The southwest coast of Nigeria (SWCN) is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding, especially during the rainy seasons, significantly affecting coastal communities along this coast. Therefore, this study uses geospatial techniques to provide information about coastline changes in the SWCN. The coastlines from different years were displayed to show the relationship between the classified coastline changes (modeled data) and the ground truth data, generated using historical Landsat images from 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024. Changes in the coastline over the years were assessed using two statistical methods: Linear Regression Rate (LRR) for the rate of change and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) for the change in distance. Coastline forecasts were also produced using the historical data by applying the Kalman filter within the BETA shoreline forecasting tool in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS_v5). The results indicate that erosion has exceeded accretion along the SWCN from 1984 to 2024, with a total erosion rate of −17,350.64 m/year, impacting a stretch of 719,436.95 m. Conversely, the total accretion rate was 12,491.45 m/year, covering a stretch of 481,674.11 m. The forecast for 2034 and 2044 suggests that most of Ondo State’s coastline will continue to erode, while Lagos State’s coast will experience both erosion and accretion, and Ogun State’s coast will primarily accrete, based on the shoreline trends observed between 1984 and 2024. These findings highlight significant changes in the SWCN and will be valuable for developing guidelines for the sustainable management of Nigeria’s southwestern coast.