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<p>Variations in land use and land cover changes (LULCC) serve as key indicators of both anthropogenic interventions and natural processes driving transformations on the Earth’s surface. This work identified the causes of changes in LULCC through predictive modeling for curve number (CN) in regional scale, Paraíba, Brazil. A dynamic model (DINAMICA EGO) was used with input data from 2000 to 2010, calibrated for simulations of future LULC scenarios and a forecast of CN parameters for the entire area of the state. The results show a growing trend in non-vegetated areas and an increase in impervious areas of 17.20% in 30&#xa0;years. As coastal areas are the most populated, the results show increased CN values with possible more significant occurrences and impacts of floods. In this study, LULCC maps and simulated CN values for 2040 are valuable for planning at different scales (basins or cities), mainly due to the lack of information on water and urban management plans and policies.</p>

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Land use and land cover changes: forecast of curve number parameters watersheds for Paraíba, Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月29日

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  • Rivaildo da Silva Ramos Filho,
  • Felipe Firmino Diniz,
  • Iana Alexandra Alves Rufino,
  • Maria José de Sousa Cordão

摘要

Variations in land use and land cover changes (LULCC) serve as key indicators of both anthropogenic interventions and natural processes driving transformations on the Earth’s surface. This work identified the causes of changes in LULCC through predictive modeling for curve number (CN) in regional scale, Paraíba, Brazil. A dynamic model (DINAMICA EGO) was used with input data from 2000 to 2010, calibrated for simulations of future LULC scenarios and a forecast of CN parameters for the entire area of the state. The results show a growing trend in non-vegetated areas and an increase in impervious areas of 17.20% in 30 years. As coastal areas are the most populated, the results show increased CN values with possible more significant occurrences and impacts of floods. In this study, LULCC maps and simulated CN values for 2040 are valuable for planning at different scales (basins or cities), mainly due to the lack of information on water and urban management plans and policies.