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<p>Dipterocarpaceae is the dominant tree family in the natural forests of Southeast and Central Highlands in Vietnam. However, these forests are undergoing substantial reductions in area and biodiversity as a result of increasing habitat loss and high human pressure. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model approach along with bioclimatic variables to project the future distribution shifts of 11 Dipterocarpaceae species under different climate change scenarios for two stable periods between 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for the models, ranging from 0.840 to 0.977, indicated robust model performance. The most important environmental factors influencing on the distribution ranges of the eleven Diptercocarpaceae species in order of importance were the isothermality in percent which quantifies how large the day-night temperature variations are relative to the summer–winter (annual) variations (bio3), elevation, annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18). Results indicate that seven species—<i>Hopea ferrea</i>, <i>Dipterocarpus alatus</i>, <i>Anisoptera costata</i>, <i>Dipterocarpus dyeri</i>, <i>Vatica odorata</i>, <i>Hopea pierrei</i>, and <i>Anthoshorea roxburghii</i>—are projected to experience a contraction in their climatic niche ranges. In contrast, <i>Dipterocarpus tuberculatus</i>, <i>Hopea odorata</i>, <i>Hopea recopei</i>, and <i>Pentacme siamensis</i> are expected to expand their climatic niches. Our findings indicate that climate change will drive shifts in the distribution of Dipterocarpaceae species in Vietnam, where some species will face range contraction while others expansion, emphasizing the need for better conservation strategies, particularly in remnant forests.</p>

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Projected climate-induced range shifts of Dipterocarpaceae in Vietnam’s Southeast and Central Highlands

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月2日

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  • Nguyen Van Quy,
  • Diego I. Rodríguez-Hernández,
  • Nguyen Thanh Tuan

摘要

Dipterocarpaceae is the dominant tree family in the natural forests of Southeast and Central Highlands in Vietnam. However, these forests are undergoing substantial reductions in area and biodiversity as a result of increasing habitat loss and high human pressure. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model approach along with bioclimatic variables to project the future distribution shifts of 11 Dipterocarpaceae species under different climate change scenarios for two stable periods between 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for the models, ranging from 0.840 to 0.977, indicated robust model performance. The most important environmental factors influencing on the distribution ranges of the eleven Diptercocarpaceae species in order of importance were the isothermality in percent which quantifies how large the day-night temperature variations are relative to the summer–winter (annual) variations (bio3), elevation, annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18). Results indicate that seven species—Hopea ferrea, Dipterocarpus alatus, Anisoptera costata, Dipterocarpus dyeri, Vatica odorata, Hopea pierrei, and Anthoshorea roxburghii—are projected to experience a contraction in their climatic niche ranges. In contrast, Dipterocarpus tuberculatus, Hopea odorata, Hopea recopei, and Pentacme siamensis are expected to expand their climatic niches. Our findings indicate that climate change will drive shifts in the distribution of Dipterocarpaceae species in Vietnam, where some species will face range contraction while others expansion, emphasizing the need for better conservation strategies, particularly in remnant forests.