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<p>China’s implementation of the stringent Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012) has led to remarkable improvements in particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) pollution. However, the trends and impacts of co-emitted pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) are less understood. This study comprehensively evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution, health burden, and underlying drivers of NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> in China from 2015 to 2023. Utilizing a national monitoring dataset, we applied Theil-Sen trend analysis, meteorological normalization techniques, and the BenMAP-CE model to assess concentration changes and attributable mortality. Our findings reveal a significant decoupling: national population-weighted national average NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations decreased by 25.9%, while O<sub>3</sub> concentrations increased by 19.2%. This divergent trend was spatially heterogeneous, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region experiencing the most substantial NO<sub>2</sub> reduction (35.4%) but the sharpest O<sub>3</sub> increase (38.3%). Health impact assessment indicates that the joint reduction in traditional pollutants including PM, SO<sub>2</sub> and CO collectively averted a large number of premature deaths. For the core research pollutants in this study: the reduction of NO<sub>2</sub> avoided 99,000–120,000 premature deaths, while the rising O<sub>3</sub> levels caused an additional 32,000–52,000 deaths, corresponding to health economic benefits and losses of 1.0–1.2 trillion CNY and 330–530 billion CNY, respectively. The “human effort” of emission reductions was the dominant driver for NO<sub>2</sub> improvement, whereas unfavorable meteorological conditions significantly exacerbated O<sub>3</sub> pollution. China’s current air quality management framework, while successful for many pollutants, faces a critical challenge from worsening O<sub>3</sub>. Future policies must pivot towards a synergistic control strategy that specifically targets the complex photochemistry between NOₙ and VOCs to mitigate the rising O<sub>3</sub> threat.</p>

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The paradox of air quality in China: diverging trends, substantial health burden, and policy implications of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) from 2015 to 2023

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Zongshuang Wang,
  • Jungang Lv

摘要

China’s implementation of the stringent Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012) has led to remarkable improvements in particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution. However, the trends and impacts of co-emitted pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) are less understood. This study comprehensively evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution, health burden, and underlying drivers of NO2 and O3 in China from 2015 to 2023. Utilizing a national monitoring dataset, we applied Theil-Sen trend analysis, meteorological normalization techniques, and the BenMAP-CE model to assess concentration changes and attributable mortality. Our findings reveal a significant decoupling: national population-weighted national average NO2 concentrations decreased by 25.9%, while O3 concentrations increased by 19.2%. This divergent trend was spatially heterogeneous, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region experiencing the most substantial NO2 reduction (35.4%) but the sharpest O3 increase (38.3%). Health impact assessment indicates that the joint reduction in traditional pollutants including PM, SO2 and CO collectively averted a large number of premature deaths. For the core research pollutants in this study: the reduction of NO2 avoided 99,000–120,000 premature deaths, while the rising O3 levels caused an additional 32,000–52,000 deaths, corresponding to health economic benefits and losses of 1.0–1.2 trillion CNY and 330–530 billion CNY, respectively. The “human effort” of emission reductions was the dominant driver for NO2 improvement, whereas unfavorable meteorological conditions significantly exacerbated O3 pollution. China’s current air quality management framework, while successful for many pollutants, faces a critical challenge from worsening O3. Future policies must pivot towards a synergistic control strategy that specifically targets the complex photochemistry between NOₙ and VOCs to mitigate the rising O3 threat.