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<p>Despite acetaldehyde’s classification as a Group 1 carcinogen, population-level epidemiological evidence linking ambient acetaldehyde to mortality remains absent, impeding risk assessment and regulatory development. Here we present the first comprehensive two-stage time-series analysis examining associations between ambient acetaldehyde and daily mortality using 206,606 deaths across districts of Tianjin, China, during 2013–2019. After adjusting for meteorological variables, fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), ozone (O<sub>3</sub>), long-term trends, and day-of-week effects, each 1&#xa0;ppb increase in acetaldehyde was associated with significant mortality elevations at lag day 1: all-cause mortality increased by 3.45% (relative risk (RR) = 1.034, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019–1.050), non-accidental mortality by 4.26% (RR = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.027–1.059), and cardiovascular mortality by 3.36% (RR = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.016–1.052). Subgroup analyses revealed particularly elevated risks for ischemic heart disease (RR = 1.163, 95% CI: 1.134–1.193) and cerebrovascular disease (RR = 1.071, 95% CI: 1.045–1.097). Older adults (≥ 65&#xa0;years) exhibited higher susceptibility than younger individuals (<i>P</i> = 0.048). Exposure–response analyses identified threshold effects at approximately 1.2&#xa0;ppb for all-cause and non-accidental mortality, while cardiovascular and respiratory mortality demonstrated near-linear relationships without clear thresholds. These findings provide foundational evidence quantifying ambient acetaldehyde-associated mortality burdens and exposure–response relationships, supporting incorporation of acetaldehyde into air quality monitoring frameworks and development of evidence-based exposure standards.</p>

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Ambient acetaldehyde exposure and daily mortality: first time-series evidence linking a group 1 carcinogenic VOC to deaths in Tianjin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月23日

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  • Jingwei Zhang,
  • Jingya Wang,
  • Yingze Tian,
  • Kun Hua,
  • Yushan Cui,
  • Mingyue Zhang

摘要

Despite acetaldehyde’s classification as a Group 1 carcinogen, population-level epidemiological evidence linking ambient acetaldehyde to mortality remains absent, impeding risk assessment and regulatory development. Here we present the first comprehensive two-stage time-series analysis examining associations between ambient acetaldehyde and daily mortality using 206,606 deaths across districts of Tianjin, China, during 2013–2019. After adjusting for meteorological variables, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), long-term trends, and day-of-week effects, each 1 ppb increase in acetaldehyde was associated with significant mortality elevations at lag day 1: all-cause mortality increased by 3.45% (relative risk (RR) = 1.034, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019–1.050), non-accidental mortality by 4.26% (RR = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.027–1.059), and cardiovascular mortality by 3.36% (RR = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.016–1.052). Subgroup analyses revealed particularly elevated risks for ischemic heart disease (RR = 1.163, 95% CI: 1.134–1.193) and cerebrovascular disease (RR = 1.071, 95% CI: 1.045–1.097). Older adults (≥ 65 years) exhibited higher susceptibility than younger individuals (P = 0.048). Exposure–response analyses identified threshold effects at approximately 1.2 ppb for all-cause and non-accidental mortality, while cardiovascular and respiratory mortality demonstrated near-linear relationships without clear thresholds. These findings provide foundational evidence quantifying ambient acetaldehyde-associated mortality burdens and exposure–response relationships, supporting incorporation of acetaldehyde into air quality monitoring frameworks and development of evidence-based exposure standards.