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<p>Groundwater quality in floodplain regions is increasingly compromised by combined geogenic and anthropogenic processes enriching potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in aquifers. This study assessed 18 groundwater samples from shallow tube wells in three zones of Chandina Upazila, Bangladesh, including industrial (Z1), semi-industrial (Z2), and residential-agricultural (Z3) areas, to evaluate water quality and health risks of As, Pb, Mn, and Fe. Physicochemical parameters and PTEs were analyzed following standard American Public Health Association (APHA) procedures. Drinking water suitability was assessed using the water quality index (WQI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), and heavy metal evaluation index (HEI). Contamination sources were identified using Pearson correlation analysis and the absolute principal component scores–multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) model. Deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulation) risk assessment were applied to estimate health risks for children and adults. The mean WQI, HEI, and HPI values were 359.43, 12.66, and 363.93 in Z1; 267.00, 14.75, and 264.59 in Z2; and 203.10, 10.37, and 197.01 in Z3, respectively, suggesting that groundwater is ‘strongly affected’ and ‘unsuitable for drinking’. Correlation analysis revealed significant relationships among physicochemical parameters and PTEs, while the APCS-MLR identified three contamination sources: geogenic (As and Fe), mixed (Mn), and industrial (Pb). Both deterministic and probabilistic health risk assessments revealed non-carcinogenic risk (NCR) and carcinogenic risk (CR) above threshold levels (HI &gt; 1 and TCR &gt; 1.0E-04), mainly due to As exposure. These findings highlight widespread groundwater contamination and underscore the need for groundwater management and public health surveillance to ensure safe drinking water.</p>

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Assessment of groundwater quality and human health risks using deterministic and probabilistic approaches in Chandina Upazila, Cumilla, Bangladesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Md. Tahsinur Rahman,
  • Mohammad Ismail,
  • Sajib Ahmed,
  • Sayed Abu Johany,
  • Ajoy Deb Nath,
  • Kanai Lal Das,
  • Md Mozammel Haque,
  • Mohammad Saiful Islam Bhuiyan

摘要

Groundwater quality in floodplain regions is increasingly compromised by combined geogenic and anthropogenic processes enriching potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in aquifers. This study assessed 18 groundwater samples from shallow tube wells in three zones of Chandina Upazila, Bangladesh, including industrial (Z1), semi-industrial (Z2), and residential-agricultural (Z3) areas, to evaluate water quality and health risks of As, Pb, Mn, and Fe. Physicochemical parameters and PTEs were analyzed following standard American Public Health Association (APHA) procedures. Drinking water suitability was assessed using the water quality index (WQI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), and heavy metal evaluation index (HEI). Contamination sources were identified using Pearson correlation analysis and the absolute principal component scores–multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) model. Deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulation) risk assessment were applied to estimate health risks for children and adults. The mean WQI, HEI, and HPI values were 359.43, 12.66, and 363.93 in Z1; 267.00, 14.75, and 264.59 in Z2; and 203.10, 10.37, and 197.01 in Z3, respectively, suggesting that groundwater is ‘strongly affected’ and ‘unsuitable for drinking’. Correlation analysis revealed significant relationships among physicochemical parameters and PTEs, while the APCS-MLR identified three contamination sources: geogenic (As and Fe), mixed (Mn), and industrial (Pb). Both deterministic and probabilistic health risk assessments revealed non-carcinogenic risk (NCR) and carcinogenic risk (CR) above threshold levels (HI > 1 and TCR > 1.0E-04), mainly due to As exposure. These findings highlight widespread groundwater contamination and underscore the need for groundwater management and public health surveillance to ensure safe drinking water.