Is the relationship between remittances and financial development in India nonlinear?
摘要
This paper investigates asymmetry and nonlinearity in the effect of remittance inflows on financial development in India for the period 1980 to 2021. We analyze whether financial development is susceptible to varying degrees of remittance inflows. The results obtained using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model reveal a U-shaped relationship between remittances and financial development in the long run, i.e., remittances initially exert a negative impact on financial development, but upon surpassing a threshold level (1.22% to 1.67% of GDP), they foster it. Further analysis using the multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model confirms the presence of short-run and long-run asymmetries in the response of financial development to small, moderate, and large remittance inflows. The results reveal that only remittances received in large amounts positively and significantly influence financial development in the long run, whereas moderate and small inflows have negative effects. The results are consistent with complementarity and substitutability hypotheses concerning the relationship between remittances and financial development. From a policy perspective, the results suggest implementing suitable measures to increase remittance flows to amplify their developmental impacts through financial development.