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<p>This paper examines how rising external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (% of GDP) affects climate resilience in Africa, using panel data for 48 countries from 1995 to 2023. Departing from the conventional assumption of symmetry, the study combines nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models, panel threshold regressions, and Fourier coherence analysis to capture asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics. The results show that increases in external public and publicly guaranteed debt significantly raise climate vulnerability and reduce readiness, while debt reductions produce weaker and statistically limited improvements, confirming strong asymmetry. Threshold estimates indicate that the adverse effects intensify once external public and publicly guaranteed debt exceeds 55–60% of GDP or debt service surpasses 18–20% of GNI, revealing critical tipping points. Sub-regional evidence highlights heterogeneity, with West and Central Africa most affected, while Southern Africa experiences limited gains at lower debt levels that reverse beyond thresholds. Fourier coherence confirms that these effects persist over medium- to long-term horizons. These findings point to a “debt–climate trap” in which debt accumulation undermines resilience unless complemented by institutional reforms. Policy responses should prioritize early, climate-linked debt restructuring before thresholds are breached, protect adaptation spending through fiscal rules, and strengthen regional coordination through joint debt-for-climate swap negotiations and risk-sharing mechanisms.</p>

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Asymmetric impacts of public debt on climate vulnerability and readiness: evidence from Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Kazeem Bello Ajide,
  • Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

摘要

This paper examines how rising external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (% of GDP) affects climate resilience in Africa, using panel data for 48 countries from 1995 to 2023. Departing from the conventional assumption of symmetry, the study combines nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models, panel threshold regressions, and Fourier coherence analysis to capture asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics. The results show that increases in external public and publicly guaranteed debt significantly raise climate vulnerability and reduce readiness, while debt reductions produce weaker and statistically limited improvements, confirming strong asymmetry. Threshold estimates indicate that the adverse effects intensify once external public and publicly guaranteed debt exceeds 55–60% of GDP or debt service surpasses 18–20% of GNI, revealing critical tipping points. Sub-regional evidence highlights heterogeneity, with West and Central Africa most affected, while Southern Africa experiences limited gains at lower debt levels that reverse beyond thresholds. Fourier coherence confirms that these effects persist over medium- to long-term horizons. These findings point to a “debt–climate trap” in which debt accumulation undermines resilience unless complemented by institutional reforms. Policy responses should prioritize early, climate-linked debt restructuring before thresholds are breached, protect adaptation spending through fiscal rules, and strengthen regional coordination through joint debt-for-climate swap negotiations and risk-sharing mechanisms.