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<p>This study examines the macroeconomic, social, and institutional determinants of provincial logistics costs in Vietnam - a transitional and emerging economy where logistics remains costly, accounting for 16–20% of GDP. Using a balanced panel of 819 observations across 63 provinces (2010–2022), the analysis draws on Transaction Cost and Institutional Theory to explore drivers of logistics inefficiency. A dynamic panel model is estimated using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM), addressing endogeneity, serial correlation, and cost persistence. Diagnostic tests confirm model robustness and instrument validity. Empirical findings show that economic growth and workforce quality significantly reduce logistics costs, while trade openness and urbanization tend to raise them, underscoring mismatches in infrastructure and urban planning. Unemployment, though typically viewed negatively, is found to temporarily suppress logistics costs through lower demand and wage pressures. Contrary to expectations, institutional quality and FDI exert no direct influence, suggesting the need for complementary reforms to unlock their potential impact. The study contributes novel provincial-level evidence to the logistics literature in a transitional and emerging country context and offers actionable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize logistics efficiency and enhance regional competitiveness amid Vietnam’s ongoing economic transformation.</p>

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Unlocking logistics efficiency in transitional economies: the impact of economic, social and institutional factors on provincial logistics costs in Vietnam

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Hoang Nguyen,
  • Tu Thanh Phan,
  • Do Thi Binh

摘要

This study examines the macroeconomic, social, and institutional determinants of provincial logistics costs in Vietnam - a transitional and emerging economy where logistics remains costly, accounting for 16–20% of GDP. Using a balanced panel of 819 observations across 63 provinces (2010–2022), the analysis draws on Transaction Cost and Institutional Theory to explore drivers of logistics inefficiency. A dynamic panel model is estimated using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM), addressing endogeneity, serial correlation, and cost persistence. Diagnostic tests confirm model robustness and instrument validity. Empirical findings show that economic growth and workforce quality significantly reduce logistics costs, while trade openness and urbanization tend to raise them, underscoring mismatches in infrastructure and urban planning. Unemployment, though typically viewed negatively, is found to temporarily suppress logistics costs through lower demand and wage pressures. Contrary to expectations, institutional quality and FDI exert no direct influence, suggesting the need for complementary reforms to unlock their potential impact. The study contributes novel provincial-level evidence to the logistics literature in a transitional and emerging country context and offers actionable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize logistics efficiency and enhance regional competitiveness amid Vietnam’s ongoing economic transformation.