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<p>In the pursuit of sustainable development within China’s ecological civilization framework, this study investigates the complex, non-linear relationship between green digital finance (GDF) and green economic efficiency (GEE). Utilizing panel data from Chinese provinces, the study employs fixed-effects and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models to uncover the dynamic impact mechanisms. The analysis reveals a significant “U-shaped” relationship, where GDF initially suppresses GEE before fostering its growth. The estimated inflection point occurs at a GDF index level of 0.265, a critical threshold that a majority of provinces have now surpassed, signaling a nationwide shift towards GDF’s positive phase. Furthermore, environmental regulation (ER) acts as a crucial moderator, but its effect is not uniform. Specifically, both command-and-control and public-participation regulations exhibit a non-linear, inverted U-shaped moderating effect, with their ability to amplify GDF’s positive impact diminishing and even turning negative beyond specific intensity thresholds. In contrast, market-incentive regulations show a linear, albeit weakening, moderating influence. These findings underscore the necessity of a nuanced policy approach, advocating for strategies that are not only tailored to a region’s position on the GDF development curve but are also dynamically calibrated to the type and intensity of the prevailing environmental regulatory regime.</p>

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How to drive green economic development in China: empirical evidence from environmental regulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月13日

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  • Chien-Chiang Lee,
  • Zihao Yuan,
  • Chang-Song Wang,
  • Zeshuang Xiao

摘要

In the pursuit of sustainable development within China’s ecological civilization framework, this study investigates the complex, non-linear relationship between green digital finance (GDF) and green economic efficiency (GEE). Utilizing panel data from Chinese provinces, the study employs fixed-effects and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models to uncover the dynamic impact mechanisms. The analysis reveals a significant “U-shaped” relationship, where GDF initially suppresses GEE before fostering its growth. The estimated inflection point occurs at a GDF index level of 0.265, a critical threshold that a majority of provinces have now surpassed, signaling a nationwide shift towards GDF’s positive phase. Furthermore, environmental regulation (ER) acts as a crucial moderator, but its effect is not uniform. Specifically, both command-and-control and public-participation regulations exhibit a non-linear, inverted U-shaped moderating effect, with their ability to amplify GDF’s positive impact diminishing and even turning negative beyond specific intensity thresholds. In contrast, market-incentive regulations show a linear, albeit weakening, moderating influence. These findings underscore the necessity of a nuanced policy approach, advocating for strategies that are not only tailored to a region’s position on the GDF development curve but are also dynamically calibrated to the type and intensity of the prevailing environmental regulatory regime.