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<p>The objective of the current work is to evaluate the present and future distributional ecology of <i>Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi</i>, an endangered endemic fish species in the Tigris-Euphrates basin. We applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to develop a species distribution model (SDM). It is the first to apply SDM for this species in Iraq. It seeks to address a significant knowledge gap in the research on regional aquatic biodiversity. Two environmental datasets were used: one based on fine-resolution local variables (physical, hydrological, and climatic) and the other based on global bioclimatic data (BioClim). Future distributions were projected under two shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585) for the timeframes 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100, with all temporal comparisons evaluated relative to the BioClim-based current baseline. The MaxEnt model based on local environmental variables demonstrated superior performance (AUC (area under the curve) = 0.944, TSS (true skill statistic) = 0.80) and a broader range of predicted habitat suitability compared to the BioClim-only model. Suitable habitats are currently concentrated in the southern and central riverine and marshland systems. However, future projections indicate a gradual contraction in appropriate areas, with a substantial loss of optimal habitats expected by the end of the century, particularly under the high-emission scenario. These findings highlight the importance of integrating fine-scale, local environmental data into distribution modeling to improve prediction accuracy in arid regions. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the critical need to deploy targeted conservation strategies, identifying priority zones to secure the survival of <i>M. sharpeyi</i>, particularly given escalating climatic stress and anthropogenic pressures on endangered freshwater ecosystems globally.</p>

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Evaluating the present and prospective situation of an endangered freshwater fish, Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi, in Iraq using species distribution modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Laith F. Lazem

摘要

The objective of the current work is to evaluate the present and future distributional ecology of Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi, an endangered endemic fish species in the Tigris-Euphrates basin. We applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to develop a species distribution model (SDM). It is the first to apply SDM for this species in Iraq. It seeks to address a significant knowledge gap in the research on regional aquatic biodiversity. Two environmental datasets were used: one based on fine-resolution local variables (physical, hydrological, and climatic) and the other based on global bioclimatic data (BioClim). Future distributions were projected under two shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585) for the timeframes 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100, with all temporal comparisons evaluated relative to the BioClim-based current baseline. The MaxEnt model based on local environmental variables demonstrated superior performance (AUC (area under the curve) = 0.944, TSS (true skill statistic) = 0.80) and a broader range of predicted habitat suitability compared to the BioClim-only model. Suitable habitats are currently concentrated in the southern and central riverine and marshland systems. However, future projections indicate a gradual contraction in appropriate areas, with a substantial loss of optimal habitats expected by the end of the century, particularly under the high-emission scenario. These findings highlight the importance of integrating fine-scale, local environmental data into distribution modeling to improve prediction accuracy in arid regions. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the critical need to deploy targeted conservation strategies, identifying priority zones to secure the survival of M. sharpeyi, particularly given escalating climatic stress and anthropogenic pressures on endangered freshwater ecosystems globally.