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<p>We examine how the adverse impacts of weather shocks are distributed through the trade network. Exploiting a rich, theoretically derived, fixed effects structure, we find significant negative short-run effects of high temperature on exports. A month with an average temperature above 30 <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10640_2025_957_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> implies export losses of around three percent. These effects are increasing in the labour-intensity of exports. Using our structural Gravity model, we assess the general equilibrium incidence of these temperature shocks. We find that equilibrium adjustments reduce the economic costs by around 20 percent, but significant costs arise also for countries not directly exposed to high temperatures.</p>

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International Trade and the Transmission of Temperature Shocks

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月30日

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  • Oliver Schenker,
  • Daniel Osberghaus

摘要

We examine how the adverse impacts of weather shocks are distributed through the trade network. Exploiting a rich, theoretically derived, fixed effects structure, we find significant negative short-run effects of high temperature on exports. A month with an average temperature above 30 \(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) implies export losses of around three percent. These effects are increasing in the labour-intensity of exports. Using our structural Gravity model, we assess the general equilibrium incidence of these temperature shocks. We find that equilibrium adjustments reduce the economic costs by around 20 percent, but significant costs arise also for countries not directly exposed to high temperatures.