Enhancing Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Prognostication of Financial Data through Volatility-Adaptive Framework
摘要
Daily Close Price (CP) prognosis using deep learning models faces distinctive challenges due to two fundamental types of uncertainties, namely aleatoric and epistemic, which remain largely unexplored in existing studies. The former is due to random market conditions, and the latter is due to the model’s limitations in addressing the knowledge gap to interpret complex dynamic CP movement. Traditional machine learning models often fail to address both market dynamics and model limitations simultaneously. This study presents PriceFlow (PrFlow): A deep hybrid bidirectional recurrent model with BiLSTM-BiGRU parallel pathways layer, a volatility-adaptive (