Technological Progress and its Job Market Impacts: A Basic Simulation Framework for Human-technology Collaboration
摘要
This research aims to analyze the impact of technological progress on the job market and to provide a theoretical foundation for guiding this progress in ways that benefit workers. This research focuses on the interactions among workers abilities, job tasks and technology substitution mechanisms and introduces ability scarcity to describe the distribution of workers’ abilities of different levels and task complexity to address the varying ability requirements across different jobs. By applying an agent-based model (ABM), this research develops a fundamental framework, a human-technology collaboration (HTC) model, to simulate the job market under different stages of technological development.We found that the degree of scarcity of workers’ abilities that can be replaced by technology determines whether the effect of technology on employment is a displacement effect or a reinstatement effect. When technology replaces workers’ premium abilities, it fosters a collaborative partnership with workers, creating jobs and allowing regular workers to benefit from technological advancements. Conversely, when technology replaces workers’ basic abilities, it competes with labor, potentially resulting in employment displacement. Moreover, the study reveals that reinstatement driven by technology’s substitution for premium abilities might offset the displacement caused by technology’s replacement of basic abilities. By making suitable adjustments and effectively guiding technological progress, mass unemployment can be prevented. This research presents a comprehensive model to characterize the relationship among worker abilities, job tasks, and technological progress. Additionally, it offers new insights and monitoring metrics to guide this technological evolution.