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<p>Our research examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, focusing on the relationship between environmental quality, economic development and digital transformation. The research aims to identify the key economic, technological and environmental drivers shaping different phases of the EKC and to provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the four selected Southeast European countries. To achieve this, our research integrates a panel autoregressive distributed lag model with wavelet analysis. This methodological combination allows for the investigation of both long-term and short-term dynamics, as well as time-frequency transitions in the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact. The panel model reveals how gross domestic product and its squared and cubic terms influence environmental outcomes over time, while the wavelet approach uncovers the temporal coherence between economic and environmental variables. The results indicate significant disparities in EKC phases across the region. Turkey remains in an early phase, with high dependence on fossil fuels and rapid urbanization contributing to a mean ecological footprint (EF) of 3.00. Romania and Bulgaria are transitioning, benefiting from structural reforms and European Union policies, yet still facing ecological pressures with footprint levels of 3.02 and 3.61, respectively. Greece is in a more advanced stage, marked by higher income levels and efforts toward sustainability, but it also confronts rebound effects, as reflected in its EF of 4.94. Long-term analysis shows that an increase in gross domestic product tends to reduce environmental pressure, though non-linear effects emerge with higher levels of income. The wavelet analysis supports these findings, revealing strong long-term coherence between income and EF over extended time horizons.</p>

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Digitalization and Economic Growth in Shaping Ecological Footprints. Evidence from the Four Selected Southeastern European Countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月3日

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  • Adela Bâra,
  • Simona-Vasilica Oprea,
  • Irina Alexandra Georgescu

摘要

Our research examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, focusing on the relationship between environmental quality, economic development and digital transformation. The research aims to identify the key economic, technological and environmental drivers shaping different phases of the EKC and to provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the four selected Southeast European countries. To achieve this, our research integrates a panel autoregressive distributed lag model with wavelet analysis. This methodological combination allows for the investigation of both long-term and short-term dynamics, as well as time-frequency transitions in the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact. The panel model reveals how gross domestic product and its squared and cubic terms influence environmental outcomes over time, while the wavelet approach uncovers the temporal coherence between economic and environmental variables. The results indicate significant disparities in EKC phases across the region. Turkey remains in an early phase, with high dependence on fossil fuels and rapid urbanization contributing to a mean ecological footprint (EF) of 3.00. Romania and Bulgaria are transitioning, benefiting from structural reforms and European Union policies, yet still facing ecological pressures with footprint levels of 3.02 and 3.61, respectively. Greece is in a more advanced stage, marked by higher income levels and efforts toward sustainability, but it also confronts rebound effects, as reflected in its EF of 4.94. Long-term analysis shows that an increase in gross domestic product tends to reduce environmental pressure, though non-linear effects emerge with higher levels of income. The wavelet analysis supports these findings, revealing strong long-term coherence between income and EF over extended time horizons.