<p>Short-term price patterns observed within a trading day are captured by incorporating intraday momentum into the Black–Scholes framework. Unlike the independent and identically distributed assumptions of the classical model, intraday momentum accounts for the influence of recent price fluctuations on short-term future returns. This work extends the Black–Scholes option pricing framework by introducing intraday momentum into the drift term of a stochastic volatility-modified model. We analyze the impact of momentum on stock prices, volatility, and option valuations, with particular attention to high-momentum scenarios. Using the Heston stochastic volatility model to estimate underlying parameters, we compute call option prices that reflect the amplifying effect of positive momentum and the attenuating effect of negative momentum. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model yields higher option valuations under strong positive momentum, while converging to classical Black–Scholes outcomes in low-volatility or low-momentum regimes. This framework provides a theoretical basis for evaluating momentum-driven effects in derivative pricing and establishes quantitative metrics for empirical testing. Overall, the proposed model demonstrates improved accuracy in option pricing under high-momentum conditions.</p>

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Momentum-Driven Option Pricing: Integrating Intraday Trends into Financial Derivative Models

  • MD Saddam Hossain,
  • Xianghui Yuan,
  • Saad Sultan

摘要

Short-term price patterns observed within a trading day are captured by incorporating intraday momentum into the Black–Scholes framework. Unlike the independent and identically distributed assumptions of the classical model, intraday momentum accounts for the influence of recent price fluctuations on short-term future returns. This work extends the Black–Scholes option pricing framework by introducing intraday momentum into the drift term of a stochastic volatility-modified model. We analyze the impact of momentum on stock prices, volatility, and option valuations, with particular attention to high-momentum scenarios. Using the Heston stochastic volatility model to estimate underlying parameters, we compute call option prices that reflect the amplifying effect of positive momentum and the attenuating effect of negative momentum. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model yields higher option valuations under strong positive momentum, while converging to classical Black–Scholes outcomes in low-volatility or low-momentum regimes. This framework provides a theoretical basis for evaluating momentum-driven effects in derivative pricing and establishes quantitative metrics for empirical testing. Overall, the proposed model demonstrates improved accuracy in option pricing under high-momentum conditions.