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<p>I use a computational simulation model to test and develop theory on Duncan’s conjectures regarding the degree of uncertainty experienced by managers under varying task complexity and environmental turbulence. Thereby, Duncan’s conjectures are formally validated, with some qualifications. The simulation results further suggest that uncertainty can be lowered significantly by switching from a maximizing approach to a satisficing approach, trading off a modest extent of the probability of organizational success. This research has the potential to pave the way for resolving the deadlock between perceptual and objective measures of uncertainty—by placing environmental uncertainty in a logical framework so that it is operationalized more effectively. It enables giving credit to managers where due, by considering the level of uncertainty overcome in arriving at an organizational outcome. The unique contribution of the theory lies in involving multiple actors, considerations of limits to knowledge, and further consideration of multiple preferences.</p>

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An update to Duncan’s theory: Uncertainty as a function of complexity, environmental turbulence, and managerial approach to decision-making

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Sasanka Sekhar Chanda

摘要

I use a computational simulation model to test and develop theory on Duncan’s conjectures regarding the degree of uncertainty experienced by managers under varying task complexity and environmental turbulence. Thereby, Duncan’s conjectures are formally validated, with some qualifications. The simulation results further suggest that uncertainty can be lowered significantly by switching from a maximizing approach to a satisficing approach, trading off a modest extent of the probability of organizational success. This research has the potential to pave the way for resolving the deadlock between perceptual and objective measures of uncertainty—by placing environmental uncertainty in a logical framework so that it is operationalized more effectively. It enables giving credit to managers where due, by considering the level of uncertainty overcome in arriving at an organizational outcome. The unique contribution of the theory lies in involving multiple actors, considerations of limits to knowledge, and further consideration of multiple preferences.