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<p>Drought represents a critical phenomenon of natural origin, that significantly threatens agricultural productivity under climate change impacts. It is triggered primarily by a lack of precipitation and progressively affects soil moisture, vegetation, streamflow, and groundwater, thereby disrupting the entire hydrological cycle of the landscape. This natural hazard is expected to significantly worsen future food security, particularly by impacting rainfed cereal production. This study aims to monitor and project the evolution of long-term drought using two widely recognized indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Projections are conducted for three future time frames—near future (2025–2049), median future (2050–2074), and far future (2075–2100)—under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), and are compared to the historical baseline period (1991–2014). In addition, the potential impact of drought on the yields of Morocco’s main rainfed cereal crops, wheat and barley, is assessed using the Standardized Yield Residual Series (SYRS) index. SYRS projections are generated through multiple linear regression models to estimate potential yield losses based on climatic predictors. Results suggest a gradual intensification of long-term drought conditions in Morocco, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In contrast, the SSP2-4.5 scenario indicates a more moderate trajectory, with relatively lower hydrological stress. The SYRS-based analysis reveals minor yield losses in the near future, moderate losses in the median future, and significant losses in the far future for both crops, compared to historical observations. Barley appears to be more vulnerable than wheat, highlighting crop-specific sensitivities to drought conditions exacerbated by climate change. These findings offer critical insights to guide farmers and policymakers in developing proactive, targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of future droughts and enhance agricultural resilience.</p>

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Investigating the impact of drought on cereal yields in Morocco: present and future projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Raja Ben Harraf,
  • Veysel Gumus,
  • Manal Mhada,
  • Mohammed Seaid,
  • Nabil El Moçayd

摘要

Drought represents a critical phenomenon of natural origin, that significantly threatens agricultural productivity under climate change impacts. It is triggered primarily by a lack of precipitation and progressively affects soil moisture, vegetation, streamflow, and groundwater, thereby disrupting the entire hydrological cycle of the landscape. This natural hazard is expected to significantly worsen future food security, particularly by impacting rainfed cereal production. This study aims to monitor and project the evolution of long-term drought using two widely recognized indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Projections are conducted for three future time frames—near future (2025–2049), median future (2050–2074), and far future (2075–2100)—under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), and are compared to the historical baseline period (1991–2014). In addition, the potential impact of drought on the yields of Morocco’s main rainfed cereal crops, wheat and barley, is assessed using the Standardized Yield Residual Series (SYRS) index. SYRS projections are generated through multiple linear regression models to estimate potential yield losses based on climatic predictors. Results suggest a gradual intensification of long-term drought conditions in Morocco, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In contrast, the SSP2-4.5 scenario indicates a more moderate trajectory, with relatively lower hydrological stress. The SYRS-based analysis reveals minor yield losses in the near future, moderate losses in the median future, and significant losses in the far future for both crops, compared to historical observations. Barley appears to be more vulnerable than wheat, highlighting crop-specific sensitivities to drought conditions exacerbated by climate change. These findings offer critical insights to guide farmers and policymakers in developing proactive, targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of future droughts and enhance agricultural resilience.