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<p>Increasing numbers of people around the globe are affected every year by the adverse consequences of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and other natural hazards. Yet we know little about the short-term attitudinal effects of events of this type. Previous research suggests that like other shocks, extreme weather events may generate anti-democratic attitudes, which could fuel democratic backsliding as the frequency of such events increases. Using an unexpected events during survey design on flood data and surveys conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2016 and 2019, I uncover no indication of such an effect. On the contrary, I find evidence that under certain circumstances, the salience shock of a flood event may even increase pro-democratic attitudes.</p>

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Floods and democratic attitudes: evidence from Latin America

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Sarah Birch

摘要

Increasing numbers of people around the globe are affected every year by the adverse consequences of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires and other natural hazards. Yet we know little about the short-term attitudinal effects of events of this type. Previous research suggests that like other shocks, extreme weather events may generate anti-democratic attitudes, which could fuel democratic backsliding as the frequency of such events increases. Using an unexpected events during survey design on flood data and surveys conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2016 and 2019, I uncover no indication of such an effect. On the contrary, I find evidence that under certain circumstances, the salience shock of a flood event may even increase pro-democratic attitudes.