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<p>Based on macro panel data from 288 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2022, this study measures the spatiotemporal evolution of climate risk and grain production resilience and employs a two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact and mechanisms of climate risk on grain production resilience. The research findings indicate the following. (1) The climate risk index in China shows an overall fluctuating upward trend over time and evolves from a point-like distribution to a patch-like expansion in space. While the average annual level of grain production resilience has not declined significantly, its spatial pattern clearly exhibits a shrinking of high-value ranges and an overall trend toward equalization. (2) Climate risk reduces grain production resilience, and this impact exhibits spatial non-equilibrium. (3) Third, climate risk exerts a negative impact on grain production resilience primarily by weakening farmland production capacity, reducing agricultural labor efficiency, and diminishing agricultural production inputs. (4) Agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural technological innovation capability, and agricultural insurance protection can effectively alleviate the negative shocks that climate risk brings to grain production resilience. This study provides an empirical basis for optimizing differentiated disaster prevention strategies and improving agricultural support policies.</p>

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How does climate risk affect the grain production resilience: an analysis of mechanism pathways and mitigation strategies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Xiaohan Pei,
  • Jintao Wang,
  • Tian Qi,
  • Rui Shi,
  • Wenxin Liu,
  • Minjuan Zhao

摘要

Based on macro panel data from 288 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2022, this study measures the spatiotemporal evolution of climate risk and grain production resilience and employs a two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact and mechanisms of climate risk on grain production resilience. The research findings indicate the following. (1) The climate risk index in China shows an overall fluctuating upward trend over time and evolves from a point-like distribution to a patch-like expansion in space. While the average annual level of grain production resilience has not declined significantly, its spatial pattern clearly exhibits a shrinking of high-value ranges and an overall trend toward equalization. (2) Climate risk reduces grain production resilience, and this impact exhibits spatial non-equilibrium. (3) Third, climate risk exerts a negative impact on grain production resilience primarily by weakening farmland production capacity, reducing agricultural labor efficiency, and diminishing agricultural production inputs. (4) Agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural technological innovation capability, and agricultural insurance protection can effectively alleviate the negative shocks that climate risk brings to grain production resilience. This study provides an empirical basis for optimizing differentiated disaster prevention strategies and improving agricultural support policies.