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<p>Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent and intense globally, posing significant risks to ecosystems and human societies. Understanding the role of human activities in driving these changes is critical for predicting future risks and informing adaptation strategies. However, the differences between the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) in attributing extreme precipitation events to human activities remain poorly understood. In this study, we use historical attribution experiments from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to quantify the contribution of human activities to global and regional extreme precipitation risks from 1982 to 2004. Our results reveal that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 MMEs indicate that anthropogenic (ANT) forcing, dominated by greenhouse gas, significantly increase the intensity and risks of extreme precipitation events over most regions. However, the stronger climate sensitivity in CMIP6 MME enhances its response of extreme precipitation to warming. Additionally, the more comprehensive representation of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in CMIP6 MME results in a much weaker, or even significantly suppressive, influence of ANT forcing on extreme precipitation events over certain regions such as East Asia and Eastern North America, compared to CMIP5 MME. Given the more realistic simulation of historical extremes in CMIP6 MME, greater confidence should be placed in the attribution findings from it, which can offer improved insights for future climate risk assessments.</p>

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A comparative analysis of CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles in attribution of global land extreme precipitation events

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Qixuan Chen,
  • Zeyu Zhang,
  • Jinxin Zhu,
  • Dagang Wang,
  • Yiwen Mei,
  • Cong Dong,
  • Guanhui Cheng

摘要

Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent and intense globally, posing significant risks to ecosystems and human societies. Understanding the role of human activities in driving these changes is critical for predicting future risks and informing adaptation strategies. However, the differences between the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) in attributing extreme precipitation events to human activities remain poorly understood. In this study, we use historical attribution experiments from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to quantify the contribution of human activities to global and regional extreme precipitation risks from 1982 to 2004. Our results reveal that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 MMEs indicate that anthropogenic (ANT) forcing, dominated by greenhouse gas, significantly increase the intensity and risks of extreme precipitation events over most regions. However, the stronger climate sensitivity in CMIP6 MME enhances its response of extreme precipitation to warming. Additionally, the more comprehensive representation of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in CMIP6 MME results in a much weaker, or even significantly suppressive, influence of ANT forcing on extreme precipitation events over certain regions such as East Asia and Eastern North America, compared to CMIP5 MME. Given the more realistic simulation of historical extremes in CMIP6 MME, greater confidence should be placed in the attribution findings from it, which can offer improved insights for future climate risk assessments.