Scholarlink

<p>Smallholder livestock adaptation is often analyzed at the level of individual species, despite farmers frequently keeping multiple livestock species simultaneously to manage climatic and livelihood risks. How these interdependent livestock choices respond to climate variability remains poorly understood, particularly in communal farming systems in South Africa. This study examines livestock species selection among 495 smallholder livestock-owning households in the Eastern Cape Province using an Instrumental Multivariate Probit framework that captures correlated species choices under historical and projected climate conditions. The results reveal differentiated adaptation patterns across livestock species. Cattle and sheep are positively associated with moderate temperature and precipitation conditions, whereas goats are strongly associated with hotter and drier environments, reinforcing their role as climate-resilient livestock. Indigenous chickens show mixed responses, with sensitivity to extreme heat and reduced suitability under higher precipitation variability. Medium-term drought exposure increases cattle ownership, while long-term drought exposure reduces reliance on cattle and chickens but increases dependence on goats. Heightened climate-risk perception is associated with broader livestock diversification across species. Future climate simulations for 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 indicate declining probabilities of selecting cattle and indigenous chickens, increasing reliance on goats, and mixed responses for sheep, which remain relatively viable under moderate warming but decline under more severe conditions. The findings suggest that projected climate change is likely to shift smallholder livestock systems toward smaller, more drought-tolerant species. These findings underscore the need for adaptation strategies that support diversified livestock systems, strengthen small-stock management, and enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable farming households.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Climate-driven adaptation in livestock species choice among smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

查看全文
  • Jabulile Z. Manyike,
  • Amon Taruvinga,
  • Chioneso S. Marange

摘要

Smallholder livestock adaptation is often analyzed at the level of individual species, despite farmers frequently keeping multiple livestock species simultaneously to manage climatic and livelihood risks. How these interdependent livestock choices respond to climate variability remains poorly understood, particularly in communal farming systems in South Africa. This study examines livestock species selection among 495 smallholder livestock-owning households in the Eastern Cape Province using an Instrumental Multivariate Probit framework that captures correlated species choices under historical and projected climate conditions. The results reveal differentiated adaptation patterns across livestock species. Cattle and sheep are positively associated with moderate temperature and precipitation conditions, whereas goats are strongly associated with hotter and drier environments, reinforcing their role as climate-resilient livestock. Indigenous chickens show mixed responses, with sensitivity to extreme heat and reduced suitability under higher precipitation variability. Medium-term drought exposure increases cattle ownership, while long-term drought exposure reduces reliance on cattle and chickens but increases dependence on goats. Heightened climate-risk perception is associated with broader livestock diversification across species. Future climate simulations for 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 indicate declining probabilities of selecting cattle and indigenous chickens, increasing reliance on goats, and mixed responses for sheep, which remain relatively viable under moderate warming but decline under more severe conditions. The findings suggest that projected climate change is likely to shift smallholder livestock systems toward smaller, more drought-tolerant species. These findings underscore the need for adaptation strategies that support diversified livestock systems, strengthen small-stock management, and enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable farming households.