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<p>While most studies focus on historical and current drought conditions, there is a critical gap in the assessment of future drought conditions under climate change. The current study addresses this gap by developing a multi-scenario framework for measuring meteorological drought in Iraq. This study aims to analyse precipitation and temperature trends via the Mann‒Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, analyse the spatiotemporal variance in historical drought trends, and predict future trends via the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). To achieve this aim, data were collected from eighteen climate stations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble. Using the Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) software, droughts were analysed for the historical period (1995–2014) and then for the near future (2040–2059) and the far future (2080–2100) under the Common Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. The results of the expected drought indicate that all regions are exposed to drought conditions of varying severity, ranging from moderately wet to nearly normal to moderate drought and ending with severe drought. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the SPI and RDI are projected to increase the drought frequency in the far future on the basis of declining precipitation and rising temperatures due to global warming. The results of this study provide valuable insights for climate and water resource experts and decision makers in the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of drought conditions in Iraq.</p>

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Assessment of meteorological drought based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections in Iraq

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月29日

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  • Asaad A. M. Al-Hussein,
  • Safa Ahmed Khalil,
  • Bushra M. Ali

摘要

While most studies focus on historical and current drought conditions, there is a critical gap in the assessment of future drought conditions under climate change. The current study addresses this gap by developing a multi-scenario framework for measuring meteorological drought in Iraq. This study aims to analyse precipitation and temperature trends via the Mann‒Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, analyse the spatiotemporal variance in historical drought trends, and predict future trends via the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). To achieve this aim, data were collected from eighteen climate stations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble. Using the Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) software, droughts were analysed for the historical period (1995–2014) and then for the near future (2040–2059) and the far future (2080–2100) under the Common Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. The results of the expected drought indicate that all regions are exposed to drought conditions of varying severity, ranging from moderately wet to nearly normal to moderate drought and ending with severe drought. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the SPI and RDI are projected to increase the drought frequency in the far future on the basis of declining precipitation and rising temperatures due to global warming. The results of this study provide valuable insights for climate and water resource experts and decision makers in the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of drought conditions in Iraq.