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<p>India’s hydroclimatic systems are undergoing unprecedented transitions in a warming climate, marked by shifts in temperature extremes, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing drought risk. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of drought trends and hydroclimatic variability across six major geographical zones—Western, Central, Himalayan, Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Peninsular, and Northeast India—during the period 1971 to 2020. Using a set of advanced climate change metrics—Standardized Local Anomalies (SLA), Novel Climate Scores (NCS), and changes in probability of local climate extremes alongside the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we quantify changes in drought conditions and the emergence of non-analogue climates. Changes in climatic extreme are computed using high-resolution daily gridded temperature and rainfall datasets, comparing recent decades against a 1951–1980 baseline. SLA quantifies deviations from historical variability, highlighting intensified warming over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, western India, and the southern peninsula. NCS reveales the emergence of novel climates—combinations of temperature and precipitation conditions not previously observed, particularly in Southeast India and the Himalayan region. The probability of local climate extremes shows a substantial increase in extreme events across India indicating enhanced climate volatility. These metrics are then integrated with drought analysis using SPEI to incorporate both precipitation and temperature-driven evaporative demand. SPEI trends indicate increasing dryness in Northeast India, the Himalayas, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, linked to declining monsoonal rainfall and rising temperatures. Meanwhile, Western and Peninsular regions show wetting trends, driven by increased rainfall and convective precipitation events. The rainfall is the dominant drought driver during the monsoon, while high maximum temperatures intensify drought conditions in pre- and post-monsoon seasons by enhancing evaporative demand. Minimum temperature exhibits regional effects, showing a drying influence in the IGP and Himalayas, but a slight moistening signal in Peninsular India. By combining drought indices with climatic extremes metrics, this study offers a comprehensive framework to monitor hydroclimatic shifts and their regional impacts. The findings underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that incorporate early warning systems, sustainable water management, and climate-resilient agriculture to address India’s evolving drought risks.</p>

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Multi-dimensional changes in drought patterns across India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月8日

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  • Arpit Tiwari,
  • Soumi Chakravorthy,
  • Preethi Nanjundan,
  • Ravi Ranjan Kumar,
  • Ananya Karmakar,
  • Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna

摘要

India’s hydroclimatic systems are undergoing unprecedented transitions in a warming climate, marked by shifts in temperature extremes, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing drought risk. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of drought trends and hydroclimatic variability across six major geographical zones—Western, Central, Himalayan, Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Peninsular, and Northeast India—during the period 1971 to 2020. Using a set of advanced climate change metrics—Standardized Local Anomalies (SLA), Novel Climate Scores (NCS), and changes in probability of local climate extremes alongside the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we quantify changes in drought conditions and the emergence of non-analogue climates. Changes in climatic extreme are computed using high-resolution daily gridded temperature and rainfall datasets, comparing recent decades against a 1951–1980 baseline. SLA quantifies deviations from historical variability, highlighting intensified warming over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, western India, and the southern peninsula. NCS reveales the emergence of novel climates—combinations of temperature and precipitation conditions not previously observed, particularly in Southeast India and the Himalayan region. The probability of local climate extremes shows a substantial increase in extreme events across India indicating enhanced climate volatility. These metrics are then integrated with drought analysis using SPEI to incorporate both precipitation and temperature-driven evaporative demand. SPEI trends indicate increasing dryness in Northeast India, the Himalayas, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, linked to declining monsoonal rainfall and rising temperatures. Meanwhile, Western and Peninsular regions show wetting trends, driven by increased rainfall and convective precipitation events. The rainfall is the dominant drought driver during the monsoon, while high maximum temperatures intensify drought conditions in pre- and post-monsoon seasons by enhancing evaporative demand. Minimum temperature exhibits regional effects, showing a drying influence in the IGP and Himalayas, but a slight moistening signal in Peninsular India. By combining drought indices with climatic extremes metrics, this study offers a comprehensive framework to monitor hydroclimatic shifts and their regional impacts. The findings underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that incorporate early warning systems, sustainable water management, and climate-resilient agriculture to address India’s evolving drought risks.