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<p>Biomass burning occurs perennially during the dry season in Equatorial Asia, causing ecological degradation, disrupting public activities, and impacting the health of millions of residents. This study introduces a novel climate-corrected model, integrating decomposition analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression, to assess the impact of climate condition and anthropogenic control on the interannual variability of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia. Using original satellite-based observations without climate correction, the result revealed that the number of active fire spots in the study region exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend (<i>p</i> &gt; 0.05), with a yearly decrease rate of − 2272 (95% confidence interval, − 6490 to 1964) spots from 2003 to 2020. This statistically insignificant trend was primarily due to disturbance of the substantial increases in fire activities during El Niño years. However, after applying climate correction, the results demonstrated a significant mitigation of biomass burning intensity (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), with a reduction of − 3311 (− 4888 to − 1733) spots/yr, a much steeper decline than that observed in the original satellite-based data. The interannual variability in annual biomass burning intensity following climate correction was largely attributed to anthropogenic control measures. Furthermore, the climate-corrected model revealed that the mainly climate-driven fire spots in this region increased at a rate of 1197 (− 2769 to 5164) spots/yr from 2003 to 2020. These findings suggest that the proposed climate-corrected model is capable to disentangle the influence of climate and anthropogenic control on the variation of biomass burning intensity. The declining trend of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia was partially offset by the influence of climate conditions, and the actual effectiveness of fire mitigation strategies is greater than what could be inferred from uncorrected satellite-based observations alone. Nevertheless, policymakers and enforcement officials must still implement stricter and more effective measures to prevent destructive biomass burning, especially during El Niño years.</p>

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Climate-corrected modeling of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia: the roles of climate change and anthropogenic control

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月11日

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  • Shuai Yin,
  • Chong Shi,
  • Dabin Ji,
  • Huazhe Shang,
  • Nan Li,
  • Zhongyi Sun,
  • Tangzhe Nie,
  • Kunpeng Yi,
  • Meng Guo,
  • Xin Zhao,
  • Lan Wu,
  • Xinlu Liu

摘要

Biomass burning occurs perennially during the dry season in Equatorial Asia, causing ecological degradation, disrupting public activities, and impacting the health of millions of residents. This study introduces a novel climate-corrected model, integrating decomposition analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression, to assess the impact of climate condition and anthropogenic control on the interannual variability of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia. Using original satellite-based observations without climate correction, the result revealed that the number of active fire spots in the study region exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend (p > 0.05), with a yearly decrease rate of − 2272 (95% confidence interval, − 6490 to 1964) spots from 2003 to 2020. This statistically insignificant trend was primarily due to disturbance of the substantial increases in fire activities during El Niño years. However, after applying climate correction, the results demonstrated a significant mitigation of biomass burning intensity (p < 0.001), with a reduction of − 3311 (− 4888 to − 1733) spots/yr, a much steeper decline than that observed in the original satellite-based data. The interannual variability in annual biomass burning intensity following climate correction was largely attributed to anthropogenic control measures. Furthermore, the climate-corrected model revealed that the mainly climate-driven fire spots in this region increased at a rate of 1197 (− 2769 to 5164) spots/yr from 2003 to 2020. These findings suggest that the proposed climate-corrected model is capable to disentangle the influence of climate and anthropogenic control on the variation of biomass burning intensity. The declining trend of biomass burning in Equatorial Asia was partially offset by the influence of climate conditions, and the actual effectiveness of fire mitigation strategies is greater than what could be inferred from uncorrected satellite-based observations alone. Nevertheless, policymakers and enforcement officials must still implement stricter and more effective measures to prevent destructive biomass burning, especially during El Niño years.