Comparative effectiveness of CDK4/6 inhibitors in metastatic breast cancer: using the target trial emulation framework to investigate overall survival in routine care
摘要
Cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i) plus aromatase inhibitor (AI) is the recommended first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer (mBC). CDK4/6i head-to-head trials have not been conducted, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) report inconsistent overall survival (OS) results despite similar effects on the primary endpoint of progression-free survival. Real-world evidence can complement RCTs but selection biases and confounders can challenge interpretation. Target trial emulation applies the principles of RCTs to observational data to overcome such challenges. We emulated a hypothetical target trial to investigate whether causal differences in OS between patients receiving first-line CDK4/6i plus AI exist in the real-world clinical setting.
MethodsWe used de-identified data (Flatiron Health mBC Enhanced Data Mart) from patients ≥ 18 years old at primary diagnosis who were treated with first-line palbociclib/ribociclib/abemaciclib plus AI for mBC between 2018 and 2024. Statistical adjustments included stabilized inverse-probability weighting (sIPTW), investigation of missing data mechanisms, and analyses for unmeasured confounders.
Results2626 patients were included (palbociclib n = 1686; ribociclib n = 537; abemaciclib n = 403). After sIPTW, baseline characteristics were balanced between groups and there was no observable difference in real-world OS (ribociclib vs palbociclib, adjusted hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI: 0.81–1.24; abemaciclib v palbociclib: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.74–1.14). Results were consistent after sensitivity analyses.
ConclusionUsing target trial emulation, real-world OS is similar with palbociclib/ribociclib/abemaciclib plus AI. These findings may contribute to the development of combination strategies to improve clinical outcomes and to guide clinical decision-making.