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<p>Climate change has intensified negative impacts on biodiversity through changes in precipitation patterns and rising global average temperatures. Semi-arid regions, such as parts of Northeastern Brazil, are particularly susceptible to these changes, with projections indicating that they will become hotter and drier, reducing the climatic suitability of several plant species. In this context, endemic and restricted-range species may be highly vulnerable. In this study, we used distribution modeling to estimate potential changes in the geographic distribution and conservation of 12 endemic Euphorbiaceae species from Northeastern Brazil. Species occurrence records were obtained from online biodiversity databases, and the ecological niche models were generated using bioclimatic variables obtained from WorldClim. We applied the MaxEnt algorithm and projected the models using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate scenarios: an optimistic scenario (SSP126) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP585), for the period 2080–2100. We found that climate change will have different impacts on the suitable habitat areas for the analyzed taxa. Future projections indicate that in the optimistic scenario, <i>Sebastiania macrocarpa</i> could expand its suitable range by approximately 45%, while <i>Algernonia bahiensis</i> and <i>Microstachys heterodoxa</i> could expand by approximately 39% and 33%, respectively. In contrast, most species are projected to experience severe reductions in climatically suitable areas, especially <i>Stilingia trapezoidea</i>, <i>Microstachys uleana</i>, and <i>Sebastiania jacobinensis</i>, all with losses exceeding 90%. In the pessimistic scenario, habitat contraction becomes even more pronounced, with <i>Stillingia trapezoidea</i>, <i>Microstachys uleana</i>, <i>Ophthalmoblapton pedunculare</i>, and <i>Sebastiania jacobinensis</i> showing losses close to 100%. However, <i>Sebastiania macrocarpa</i> and <i>Algernonia bahiensis</i> maintain potential range expansions even under the most severe scenario. <i>Mabea fistulifera</i> subsp. <i>bahiensis</i> exhibited complete loss of suitable habitat in both future climate scenarios. We also documented a reduction in species richness in all future climate scenarios analyzed. Furthermore, in both climate scenarios, a general trend toward increasing extinction risk is observed for most species. Thus, this study clearly demonstrates that most endemic species in the family are highly vulnerable to various future climate change scenarios and that conservation measures such as the creation of protected areas within the species’ climatically suitable concentrations should be established.</p>

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Projections of suitable habitat loss and its implications in conservation for endemic non-pseudanthial Euphorbioideae (Euphorbiaceae) species in Northeastern Brazil under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

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  • Tiago Oliveira,
  • Yeison Jaroc Lombo-Sanchez,
  • Karen Yuliana Suarez-Contento,
  • Alícia Marques Torres,
  • Jone Clebson Ribeiro Mendes,
  • Vitória Raquel da Silva Lima,
  • Sarah Maria Athiê-Souza

摘要

Climate change has intensified negative impacts on biodiversity through changes in precipitation patterns and rising global average temperatures. Semi-arid regions, such as parts of Northeastern Brazil, are particularly susceptible to these changes, with projections indicating that they will become hotter and drier, reducing the climatic suitability of several plant species. In this context, endemic and restricted-range species may be highly vulnerable. In this study, we used distribution modeling to estimate potential changes in the geographic distribution and conservation of 12 endemic Euphorbiaceae species from Northeastern Brazil. Species occurrence records were obtained from online biodiversity databases, and the ecological niche models were generated using bioclimatic variables obtained from WorldClim. We applied the MaxEnt algorithm and projected the models using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate scenarios: an optimistic scenario (SSP126) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP585), for the period 2080–2100. We found that climate change will have different impacts on the suitable habitat areas for the analyzed taxa. Future projections indicate that in the optimistic scenario, Sebastiania macrocarpa could expand its suitable range by approximately 45%, while Algernonia bahiensis and Microstachys heterodoxa could expand by approximately 39% and 33%, respectively. In contrast, most species are projected to experience severe reductions in climatically suitable areas, especially Stilingia trapezoidea, Microstachys uleana, and Sebastiania jacobinensis, all with losses exceeding 90%. In the pessimistic scenario, habitat contraction becomes even more pronounced, with Stillingia trapezoidea, Microstachys uleana, Ophthalmoblapton pedunculare, and Sebastiania jacobinensis showing losses close to 100%. However, Sebastiania macrocarpa and Algernonia bahiensis maintain potential range expansions even under the most severe scenario. Mabea fistulifera subsp. bahiensis exhibited complete loss of suitable habitat in both future climate scenarios. We also documented a reduction in species richness in all future climate scenarios analyzed. Furthermore, in both climate scenarios, a general trend toward increasing extinction risk is observed for most species. Thus, this study clearly demonstrates that most endemic species in the family are highly vulnerable to various future climate change scenarios and that conservation measures such as the creation of protected areas within the species’ climatically suitable concentrations should be established.