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<p>Anthropogenic climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity, particularly for amphibians inhabiting tropical mountain systems. Due to their reliance on humid montane forests and moderate thermal conditions, plethodontid salamanders in Nuclear Central America, a global hotspot of diversity and endemism, are especially vulnerable to warming and altered precipitation regimes. We applied species distribution models (SDM) to project the current and future distributions of 35 salamander species under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios. We quantified changes in range size, species–area relationships, phylogenetic diversity, endemism, and evolutionary distinctiveness, and evaluated biodiversity patterns across protected areas under different governance regimes. Cloud forest distribution emerged as the strongest predictor of salamander suitability. Most species are projected to undergo severe range contractions, with &gt; 70% experiencing reductions in suitable area and spatial shifts in richness and endemism hotspots by 2041–2060. Species–area relationship analyses indicate increasing functional fragmentation of climatically suitable habitat, consistent with the emergence of topographic and cloud forest “islands.” Losses of evolutionarily distinctive lineages are expected to reduce phylogenetic diversity and endemism, disproportionately affecting narrow-range and high-elevation taxa. Mixed-effects models revealed significant differences in evolutionary diversity across governance regimes and climate scenarios, highlighting the role of collaborative and nonprofit management contexts in maintaining biodiversity patterns. However, many protected areas are projected to lose climatically suitable habitat in future scenarios. These findings underscore the need for climate-resilient regional conservation planning that integrates cloud forest conservation, habitat connectivity, climatic refugia, and evolutionary history. Proactive strategies centered on refugial landscapes and governance-aware conservation design are critical for sustaining salamander diversity and evolutionary legacy in Central American montane ecosystems.</p>

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Climate-driven erosion of richness and evolutionary diversity and conservation shortfall in a salamander hotspot

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • René Bolom-Huet,
  • Luis Caloca-Peña,
  • Fredy A. Falconi-Briones,
  • Armando Sunny

摘要

Anthropogenic climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity, particularly for amphibians inhabiting tropical mountain systems. Due to their reliance on humid montane forests and moderate thermal conditions, plethodontid salamanders in Nuclear Central America, a global hotspot of diversity and endemism, are especially vulnerable to warming and altered precipitation regimes. We applied species distribution models (SDM) to project the current and future distributions of 35 salamander species under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios. We quantified changes in range size, species–area relationships, phylogenetic diversity, endemism, and evolutionary distinctiveness, and evaluated biodiversity patterns across protected areas under different governance regimes. Cloud forest distribution emerged as the strongest predictor of salamander suitability. Most species are projected to undergo severe range contractions, with > 70% experiencing reductions in suitable area and spatial shifts in richness and endemism hotspots by 2041–2060. Species–area relationship analyses indicate increasing functional fragmentation of climatically suitable habitat, consistent with the emergence of topographic and cloud forest “islands.” Losses of evolutionarily distinctive lineages are expected to reduce phylogenetic diversity and endemism, disproportionately affecting narrow-range and high-elevation taxa. Mixed-effects models revealed significant differences in evolutionary diversity across governance regimes and climate scenarios, highlighting the role of collaborative and nonprofit management contexts in maintaining biodiversity patterns. However, many protected areas are projected to lose climatically suitable habitat in future scenarios. These findings underscore the need for climate-resilient regional conservation planning that integrates cloud forest conservation, habitat connectivity, climatic refugia, and evolutionary history. Proactive strategies centered on refugial landscapes and governance-aware conservation design are critical for sustaining salamander diversity and evolutionary legacy in Central American montane ecosystems.