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<p>Climate change and human activities significantly disrupt habitat suitability, intensifying biodiversity loss. Despite progress in climate refugia research, effective methods for identifying regional conservation priorities based on refugia potential remain limited. This study presents an integrated planning framework that integrates climate velocity, topographic heterogeneity, biodiversity loss risk, and opportunity cost features. Using Zonation 5 software alongside general circulation model (GCM) assessments, Bayesian risk modeling, and commonality analysis, we identified refugia-based conservation priorities across scenarios in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of North China. Our results show that topographic heterogeneity plays a prominent role in shaping conservation priorities, providing relatively stable refugia potential across scenarios. In contrast, climate change−captured by velocity metrics, climate bins, and differing representative concentration pathways (RCPs)−introduces scenario-dependent variability. Climate- and socioeconomic-related features, represented by backward velocity and opportunity cost, exert suppression effects on spatial variance, thereby clarifying the independent contributions of other features by reducing spurious negative common variance. Integrating these diverse features tends to produce more stable prioritization patterns than single-metric approaches within the scope of this study. We identified persistent refugium clusters in the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains that consistently emerge as high priority areas. Overall, the framework offers a structured approach for exploring climate-resilient conservation planning at a regional scale.</p>

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Identifying conservation priorities based on climate refugia at a regional scale using multiple features

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月28日

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  • Xueqi Liu,
  • Hao Li,
  • Carlos Navarro-Racines,
  • Lu Wang,
  • Jia Yang,
  • Qiannan Xue,
  • Mingxi Shi,
  • Yingying Wang,
  • Huanyang Zhao

摘要

Climate change and human activities significantly disrupt habitat suitability, intensifying biodiversity loss. Despite progress in climate refugia research, effective methods for identifying regional conservation priorities based on refugia potential remain limited. This study presents an integrated planning framework that integrates climate velocity, topographic heterogeneity, biodiversity loss risk, and opportunity cost features. Using Zonation 5 software alongside general circulation model (GCM) assessments, Bayesian risk modeling, and commonality analysis, we identified refugia-based conservation priorities across scenarios in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of North China. Our results show that topographic heterogeneity plays a prominent role in shaping conservation priorities, providing relatively stable refugia potential across scenarios. In contrast, climate change−captured by velocity metrics, climate bins, and differing representative concentration pathways (RCPs)−introduces scenario-dependent variability. Climate- and socioeconomic-related features, represented by backward velocity and opportunity cost, exert suppression effects on spatial variance, thereby clarifying the independent contributions of other features by reducing spurious negative common variance. Integrating these diverse features tends to produce more stable prioritization patterns than single-metric approaches within the scope of this study. We identified persistent refugium clusters in the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains that consistently emerge as high priority areas. Overall, the framework offers a structured approach for exploring climate-resilient conservation planning at a regional scale.