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<p><i>Quercus oblongata</i>, a keystone species of the Western Himalaya, is undergoing rapid ecological degradation under the combined pressures of climate change and the expansion of <i>Pinus roxburghii</i>. Using an integrated framework combining species distribution modeling, SSR-based population genetics, soil physiochemical profiling, allelopathy bioassays, GC-MS-based allelochemical identification, molecular docking, metagenomics, and vegetation surveys across oak, mixed oak-pine, and pine-dominated forests, we assessed the mechanisms underlying this ecological shift. Species distribution model project a contraction of 1,549.66&#xa0;km² for <i>Q. oblongata</i> and an expansion of 6,538.64&#xa0;km² for <i>P. roxburghii</i> under future high-emission scenarios (SSP585). Genetic analyses revealed reduced heterozygosity in mixed forests compared to pure oak stands, indicating population stress. GC-MS and docking revealed allelochemicals in pine soils that suppress oak seedling growth, confirmed through germination assays. Pine encroachment was further associated with, altered soil nutrient status, shifts in microbial community composition, and a decline in plant species richness across vegetation layers. Collectively, these results demonstrate that climate change is amplifying the invasive-like behavior of <i>P. roxburghii</i>, accelerating ecological and genetic erosion of <i>Q. oblongata</i> forests, and underscore the need for targeted conservation and restoration strategies in the Western Himalaya.</p>

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Pinus roxburghii Sarg. expansion drives genetic erosion and ecological collapse of keystone Quercus oblongata D. Don forests in the Western Himalaya

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月25日

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  • Mohammed Asif Chowdhary,
  • Sushree Pralipta Chhotaray,
  • Hari Shankar Gadri,
  • Vikas Sharma,
  • Sarbani Roy,
  • Sunil Mittal,
  • Pankaj Bhardwaj

摘要

Quercus oblongata, a keystone species of the Western Himalaya, is undergoing rapid ecological degradation under the combined pressures of climate change and the expansion of Pinus roxburghii. Using an integrated framework combining species distribution modeling, SSR-based population genetics, soil physiochemical profiling, allelopathy bioassays, GC-MS-based allelochemical identification, molecular docking, metagenomics, and vegetation surveys across oak, mixed oak-pine, and pine-dominated forests, we assessed the mechanisms underlying this ecological shift. Species distribution model project a contraction of 1,549.66 km² for Q. oblongata and an expansion of 6,538.64 km² for P. roxburghii under future high-emission scenarios (SSP585). Genetic analyses revealed reduced heterozygosity in mixed forests compared to pure oak stands, indicating population stress. GC-MS and docking revealed allelochemicals in pine soils that suppress oak seedling growth, confirmed through germination assays. Pine encroachment was further associated with, altered soil nutrient status, shifts in microbial community composition, and a decline in plant species richness across vegetation layers. Collectively, these results demonstrate that climate change is amplifying the invasive-like behavior of P. roxburghii, accelerating ecological and genetic erosion of Q. oblongata forests, and underscore the need for targeted conservation and restoration strategies in the Western Himalaya.