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<p>A recent study published in Biodiversity and Conservation by Lacava et al. (Biodivers Conserv, 2024) suggests population recovery of <i>Podocnemis expansa</i> in Brazil based on increased hatchling releases across 11 nesting areas. After carefully reviewing the published data, I conclude there is little support for the author’s findings. Studies of freshwater and sea turtles show that hatchling counts alone should not be used to assess population trends. Reanalysis of the original data, accounting for temporal autocorrelation, revealed increases in only five of 11 areas. This result contradicts the original claim of increases in most areas. Furthermore, reanalysis suggests that methodological changes influenced results in at least one area. The study published by Lacava et al. (Biodivers Conserv, 2024) requires correction to avoid ingenuous and misleading conclusions.</p>

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Misleading monitoring: more hatchlings do not represent turtle population recovery

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月28日

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  • Darren Norris

摘要

A recent study published in Biodiversity and Conservation by Lacava et al. (Biodivers Conserv, 2024) suggests population recovery of Podocnemis expansa in Brazil based on increased hatchling releases across 11 nesting areas. After carefully reviewing the published data, I conclude there is little support for the author’s findings. Studies of freshwater and sea turtles show that hatchling counts alone should not be used to assess population trends. Reanalysis of the original data, accounting for temporal autocorrelation, revealed increases in only five of 11 areas. This result contradicts the original claim of increases in most areas. Furthermore, reanalysis suggests that methodological changes influenced results in at least one area. The study published by Lacava et al. (Biodivers Conserv, 2024) requires correction to avoid ingenuous and misleading conclusions.