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<p>Within the <i>Ciona</i> species complex, <i>C. intestinalis</i> and <i>C. robusta</i> have been reported as invasive across multiple continents, with <i>C. intestinalis</i> native to colder environments, while <i>C. robusta</i> originates from temperate regions and is currently introduced along the Chilean coast. The combined effects of ocean warming and intensified human activities may facilitate their expansion toward the southern tip of South America and potentially the Antarctic Peninsula. To assess the invasion potential of both species under climate-change scenarios, we integrated physiological assays (for <i>C. robusta</i>) with correlative ecological niche models (ENMs). Experiments on <i>C. robusta</i> were conducted at − 1.5 °C (simulated Antarctic winter), 4 °C (projected Antarctic summer), and 10 °C (temperate control), and revealed negligible feeding activity at − 1.5 °C and ~ 4 °C, indicating strong thermal constraints. ENMs for both species, developed with MaxEnt using Bio-ORACLE v3 environmental layers, projected under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for mid- (2050–2060) and late-century (2090–2100), show substantial increase in subantarctic habitat suitability for <i>C. intestinalis</i>, especially in southern Chile and the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, while <i>C. robusta</i> shows a more limited poleward expansion. Antarctic waters remain unsuitable for both species under all scenarios. Our results highlight emerging invasion hotspots in the Subantarctic. This integrative approach enhances the understanding of marine invasions in high latitude ecosystems and supports the urgency of implementing biosecurity measures, monitoring strategies, and management actions in the face of climate change.</p>

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Contrasting invasion potential of Ciona robusta and C. intestinalis in Subantarctic and Antarctic ecosystems under warming scenarios: insights of ecological niche models and physiological data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月5日

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  • Zambra López-Farrán,
  • Luis Enrique Angeles-Gonzalez,
  • Alejandro Ortiz,
  • Fernando Díaz,
  • Jorge M. Navarro

摘要

Within the Ciona species complex, C. intestinalis and C. robusta have been reported as invasive across multiple continents, with C. intestinalis native to colder environments, while C. robusta originates from temperate regions and is currently introduced along the Chilean coast. The combined effects of ocean warming and intensified human activities may facilitate their expansion toward the southern tip of South America and potentially the Antarctic Peninsula. To assess the invasion potential of both species under climate-change scenarios, we integrated physiological assays (for C. robusta) with correlative ecological niche models (ENMs). Experiments on C. robusta were conducted at − 1.5 °C (simulated Antarctic winter), 4 °C (projected Antarctic summer), and 10 °C (temperate control), and revealed negligible feeding activity at − 1.5 °C and ~ 4 °C, indicating strong thermal constraints. ENMs for both species, developed with MaxEnt using Bio-ORACLE v3 environmental layers, projected under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for mid- (2050–2060) and late-century (2090–2100), show substantial increase in subantarctic habitat suitability for C. intestinalis, especially in southern Chile and the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, while C. robusta shows a more limited poleward expansion. Antarctic waters remain unsuitable for both species under all scenarios. Our results highlight emerging invasion hotspots in the Subantarctic. This integrative approach enhances the understanding of marine invasions in high latitude ecosystems and supports the urgency of implementing biosecurity measures, monitoring strategies, and management actions in the face of climate change.