Distributional projections of an Amazonian fish in native and non-native watersheds of South America in response to climate change
摘要
We studied the impacts of climate change on the distribution of a commercially important Neotropical freshwater fish, Plagioscion squamosissimus, in South America by examining how its range is likely to shift across native and non-native river basins in response to climate alteration projected for the middle and end of this century. We used a set of envelope, distance, and machine learning algorithms within the ensemble forecasting approach to predict the geographical distribution of the species in the present, 2050, and 2090, considering different carbon emission scenarios. In general, native area tends to face acute range contraction of the species, and conversely, non-native areas tend to experience the range expansion phenomenon. In the native region, the most drastic range contractions were predicted for the Atlantic North, Atlantic Northeast and Tocantins-Araguaia basins. Considering the non-native areas, the invasive potential is projected to increase mainly in the Atlantic East, São Francisco, and Paraná-Paraguay basins in the face of climate change, with Uruguay basin, currently not suitable to P. squamosissimus, projected to become susceptible to the species in the future. By indicating the river basins most susceptible to invasion or the species, including those currently free from the presence of the species but in the face of imminent invasion due to climate change, these findings provide important insights for conservation prioritization.