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<p>The spotted lanternfly (<i>Lycorma delicatula</i> (White)) is a rapidly spreading agricultural and forestry pest that has caused documented ecological and economic threats in regions where it establishes. Native to East Asia, its presence and invasion potential under varying climatic conditions remain uncertain, particularly in range-edge areas such as Taiwan, which lies near its native range. This study integrates field surveys, museum specimen analysis, and ecological niche modeling to rigorously assess the current distribution and climate-driven potential invasion areas of <i>L. delicatula</i> across diverse climates. Despite conducting surveys across all twelve months over a 2-year period, no individuals or voucher specimens were discovered in Taiwan, contradicting earlier reports. Our ecological niche models reveal that under current climate conditions, most areas of Taiwan remain unsuitable for <i>L. delicatula</i>, with marginally suitable zones confined to high-altitude areas such as Lishan. Future climate projections suggest a northward shift in global suitability, further limiting the potential range within Taiwan. In addition to the regional focus, global ecological niche models were developed to assess climate-driven shifts in the species’ invasion potential worldwide. These findings underscore the importance of species verification, climate-informed risk modeling, and targeted surveillance in mountainous regions. The study highlights how resolving historical distribution ambiguities and addressing the Wallacean shortfall are critical for effective biosecurity policy and invasive species management.</p>

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Assessing current distribution and climate-driven potential invasion areas of Lycorma delicatula, with a focus on Taiwan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月23日

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  • You-Sheng Lin,
  • Jhih-Rong Liao

摘要

The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula (White)) is a rapidly spreading agricultural and forestry pest that has caused documented ecological and economic threats in regions where it establishes. Native to East Asia, its presence and invasion potential under varying climatic conditions remain uncertain, particularly in range-edge areas such as Taiwan, which lies near its native range. This study integrates field surveys, museum specimen analysis, and ecological niche modeling to rigorously assess the current distribution and climate-driven potential invasion areas of L. delicatula across diverse climates. Despite conducting surveys across all twelve months over a 2-year period, no individuals or voucher specimens were discovered in Taiwan, contradicting earlier reports. Our ecological niche models reveal that under current climate conditions, most areas of Taiwan remain unsuitable for L. delicatula, with marginally suitable zones confined to high-altitude areas such as Lishan. Future climate projections suggest a northward shift in global suitability, further limiting the potential range within Taiwan. In addition to the regional focus, global ecological niche models were developed to assess climate-driven shifts in the species’ invasion potential worldwide. These findings underscore the importance of species verification, climate-informed risk modeling, and targeted surveillance in mountainous regions. The study highlights how resolving historical distribution ambiguities and addressing the Wallacean shortfall are critical for effective biosecurity policy and invasive species management.