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<p>This study evaluates the consistency between the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and ShakeMap-derived ground-motion fields in Greece. A total of 2,617 ShakeMaps covering the period 1973–2022 were generated using regionally appropriate ground-motion models and adjusted to rock-site conditions following ESHM20 conventions (RotD50). Observational constraints in the form of strong-motion recordings and/or macroseismic intensities were available for 441 earthquakes, providing direct anchoring for a substantial subset of events, while the remaining fields rely primarily on model-based spatial interpolation. Exceedance fractions for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration at periods of 0.3&#xa0;s and 1.0&#xa0;s were evaluated relative to ESHM20 hazard maps for return periods of 50 and 475 years and across multiple aggregation levels (mean; 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles). The resulting exceedance patterns exhibit the expected ordering across aggregation levels and broadly align with probabilistic seismic hazard expectations. Residual differences are more pronounced for spectral accelerations and in regions near site-classification thresholds, reflecting the combined influence of ground-motion model variability, site-response representation, and ShakeMap uncertainty. Given the limited 50-year observation window and the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion, the results are interpreted as quantitative indicators of model consistency within epistemic uncertainty rather than as formal validation of the hazard model. The proposed framework provides a transparent and reproducible approach for national-scale screening of regional seismic hazard model behaviour.</p>

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Evaluating the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) using ShakeMap-derived ground motion fields in Greece

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Nikolaos Anterriotis-Kalpakidis,
  • Anastasia Kiratzi

摘要

This study evaluates the consistency between the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and ShakeMap-derived ground-motion fields in Greece. A total of 2,617 ShakeMaps covering the period 1973–2022 were generated using regionally appropriate ground-motion models and adjusted to rock-site conditions following ESHM20 conventions (RotD50). Observational constraints in the form of strong-motion recordings and/or macroseismic intensities were available for 441 earthquakes, providing direct anchoring for a substantial subset of events, while the remaining fields rely primarily on model-based spatial interpolation. Exceedance fractions for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration at periods of 0.3 s and 1.0 s were evaluated relative to ESHM20 hazard maps for return periods of 50 and 475 years and across multiple aggregation levels (mean; 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles). The resulting exceedance patterns exhibit the expected ordering across aggregation levels and broadly align with probabilistic seismic hazard expectations. Residual differences are more pronounced for spectral accelerations and in regions near site-classification thresholds, reflecting the combined influence of ground-motion model variability, site-response representation, and ShakeMap uncertainty. Given the limited 50-year observation window and the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion, the results are interpreted as quantitative indicators of model consistency within epistemic uncertainty rather than as formal validation of the hazard model. The proposed framework provides a transparent and reproducible approach for national-scale screening of regional seismic hazard model behaviour.