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<p>Critical lifeline infrastructures, including pipelines, tunnels, dams, bridges, and buried utilities are highly susceptible to permanent ground displacements caused by surface-fault ruptures during large earthquakes. Accurate estimation of such displacements is essential for earthquake-resistant design, particularly because both on-fault (principal) and off-fault (distributed) displacements may threaten structural safety. Conventional deterministic approaches, which rely on empirical fault scaling relations, often neglect site-specific seismicity, rupture complexity, and structural location relative to the fault, thereby introducing uncertainty in design safety. In contrast, probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessment (PFDHA) provides a logic tree-based framework to evaluate both on- and off-fault displacement hazards with associated epistemic uncertainty. This study develops a combined probabilistic and deterministic framework for fault displacement hazard assessment in the Indian region. Preliminary PFDHA is carried out over the entire region using uniform grid spacing and the first branch of a logic tree, considering both distributed- and fault-based seismicity approaches. Hazard maps are generated for a 2475-year return period. Subsequently, detailed PFDHA and deterministic fault displacement hazard assessment (DFDHA) are performed at five representative sites located across seismic zones II to VI (as delineated in Indian standard), incorporating multiple logic tree branches to account for epistemic uncertainties. Hazard curves are developed and weighted mean displacement values are computed for different return periods. Based on comparative evaluation of PFDHA and DFDHA results, design fault displacement values are recommended for seismic zones II to VI. These values provide a regional-scale basis for design and route selection of lifeline structures in cases where site-specific studies are not feasible. While the proposed methodology is applied to India, it is generalizable to other tectonically active regions, and the recommended values may serve as an initial guideline for integrating fault displacement hazard considerations into seismic design codes.</p>

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Probabilistic and deterministic fault displacement hazard assessment of the Indian region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Narsiram Gurjar,
  • S. T. G. Raghukanth

摘要

Critical lifeline infrastructures, including pipelines, tunnels, dams, bridges, and buried utilities are highly susceptible to permanent ground displacements caused by surface-fault ruptures during large earthquakes. Accurate estimation of such displacements is essential for earthquake-resistant design, particularly because both on-fault (principal) and off-fault (distributed) displacements may threaten structural safety. Conventional deterministic approaches, which rely on empirical fault scaling relations, often neglect site-specific seismicity, rupture complexity, and structural location relative to the fault, thereby introducing uncertainty in design safety. In contrast, probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessment (PFDHA) provides a logic tree-based framework to evaluate both on- and off-fault displacement hazards with associated epistemic uncertainty. This study develops a combined probabilistic and deterministic framework for fault displacement hazard assessment in the Indian region. Preliminary PFDHA is carried out over the entire region using uniform grid spacing and the first branch of a logic tree, considering both distributed- and fault-based seismicity approaches. Hazard maps are generated for a 2475-year return period. Subsequently, detailed PFDHA and deterministic fault displacement hazard assessment (DFDHA) are performed at five representative sites located across seismic zones II to VI (as delineated in Indian standard), incorporating multiple logic tree branches to account for epistemic uncertainties. Hazard curves are developed and weighted mean displacement values are computed for different return periods. Based on comparative evaluation of PFDHA and DFDHA results, design fault displacement values are recommended for seismic zones II to VI. These values provide a regional-scale basis for design and route selection of lifeline structures in cases where site-specific studies are not feasible. While the proposed methodology is applied to India, it is generalizable to other tectonically active regions, and the recommended values may serve as an initial guideline for integrating fault displacement hazard considerations into seismic design codes.