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<p>In 2020, two major earthquakes occurred that caused loss of lives and severe damage to the built environment in Türkiye: On January 24 an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.8 in the East Anatolian Fault Zone nearby Elazig (Sivrice) province and, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.6 on the North Samos Fault in the Aegean Sea offshore Izmir (Seferihisar) province on October 30. After both events, careful on-site damage inspection surveys were conducted. The observational data provide damage information about 92,800 and 213,776 buildings in Elazig and Izmir cities hit by the January 24 and the October 30 earthquakes, respectively. This paper aims to construct comprehensive empirical fragility functions from these two damage datasets using statistical methods. To examine the uncertainties, fragility curves are produced using different ground motion models and local soil information from different sources, and to consider these effects a ground motion model using a logic tree approach is proposed. Fragility curves for reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame type structures and unreinforced masonry structures, which are the predominant typologies in Türkiye, are pro- posed with their confidence intervals. Comparisons with the fragility functions for similar building classes available in the literature (e.g. European Seismic Risk Model-ESRM2020) are provided.</p>

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Development of empirical fragility functions after the 2020 earthquakes in and around Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月24日

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  • Nurullah Acikgoz,
  • Ufuk Hancilar

摘要

In 2020, two major earthquakes occurred that caused loss of lives and severe damage to the built environment in Türkiye: On January 24 an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.8 in the East Anatolian Fault Zone nearby Elazig (Sivrice) province and, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.6 on the North Samos Fault in the Aegean Sea offshore Izmir (Seferihisar) province on October 30. After both events, careful on-site damage inspection surveys were conducted. The observational data provide damage information about 92,800 and 213,776 buildings in Elazig and Izmir cities hit by the January 24 and the October 30 earthquakes, respectively. This paper aims to construct comprehensive empirical fragility functions from these two damage datasets using statistical methods. To examine the uncertainties, fragility curves are produced using different ground motion models and local soil information from different sources, and to consider these effects a ground motion model using a logic tree approach is proposed. Fragility curves for reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame type structures and unreinforced masonry structures, which are the predominant typologies in Türkiye, are pro- posed with their confidence intervals. Comparisons with the fragility functions for similar building classes available in the literature (e.g. European Seismic Risk Model-ESRM2020) are provided.