<p>Reliable magnitude estimation is essential for earthquake early warning systems. This study develops empirical magnitude estimation relations for Iran, based on frequency, amplitude, and energy characteristics of the P-wave onset using earthquakes waveforms recorded across the country. The P-wave parameters of characteristic period (τ<sub>c</sub>), dominant period (τ<sub>p</sub><sup>max</sup>), peak displacement (P<sub>d</sub>), velocity, and acceleration, cumulative absolute velocity, integral of velocity squared, and integral of absolute velocity are calculated within initial P-wave windows of 1–8&#xa0;s. Linear regression models are developed and tuned based on 80% of the dataset and then validated on the remaining 20%. The analysis of the P-wave time window effect shows that the conventional 3-second window is the shortest duration at which errors noticeably decrease and model performance improves, while for τ<sub>c</sub>, the scatter reduces more from the 5-second window. The results indicate that magnitude estimation relations based on amplitude- and energy-related parameters generally provide more stable and accurate performance, with lower standard deviation and scatter, compared to those based on frequency parameters. Among all parameters, relations derived from P<sub>d</sub> exhibit the smallest errors and scatter, whereas those based on τ<sub>p</sub><sup>max</sup> (within the 3-second window) show the least magnitude underestimation for earthquakes larger than M 6.5. Finally, comparisons with global and regional models highlight both compatibilities and also significant differences, particularly for energy-based parameters, underlining the importance of regional calibration.</p>

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Development of magnitude estimation relations from P-wave onset parameters for earthquake early warning applications in Iran

  • Bita Niazpour,
  • Zaher Hossein Shomali,
  • Ali Moradi,
  • Iman Soltani Mohammadi

摘要

Reliable magnitude estimation is essential for earthquake early warning systems. This study develops empirical magnitude estimation relations for Iran, based on frequency, amplitude, and energy characteristics of the P-wave onset using earthquakes waveforms recorded across the country. The P-wave parameters of characteristic period (τc), dominant period (τpmax), peak displacement (Pd), velocity, and acceleration, cumulative absolute velocity, integral of velocity squared, and integral of absolute velocity are calculated within initial P-wave windows of 1–8 s. Linear regression models are developed and tuned based on 80% of the dataset and then validated on the remaining 20%. The analysis of the P-wave time window effect shows that the conventional 3-second window is the shortest duration at which errors noticeably decrease and model performance improves, while for τc, the scatter reduces more from the 5-second window. The results indicate that magnitude estimation relations based on amplitude- and energy-related parameters generally provide more stable and accurate performance, with lower standard deviation and scatter, compared to those based on frequency parameters. Among all parameters, relations derived from Pd exhibit the smallest errors and scatter, whereas those based on τpmax (within the 3-second window) show the least magnitude underestimation for earthquakes larger than M 6.5. Finally, comparisons with global and regional models highlight both compatibilities and also significant differences, particularly for energy-based parameters, underlining the importance of regional calibration.