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Background <p>The application of nuclear energy for hydrogen production is considered in strategic documents of both Russia and other countries. A&#xa0;comparative study of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production allows its potential to be analyzed and preferrable options to be selected.</p> Aim <p>To test the methodology for selecting the most preferred scenarios for the deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production.</p> Material and methods <p>Modeling of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production in Russia up to 2050 and their comparative assessment were carried out taking into account the varying importance of the evaluation criteria. The realized methodology for selecting scenarios is based on a&#xa0;number of multi-criteria analysis methods and involves preparing a&#xa0;set of evaluation criteria, forming several sets of criterion weights, calculating aggregated indicators, step-by-step selection of scenarios, analyzing the uncertainty of criterion values and sensitivity of the final selection of scenarios.</p> Results and discussion <p>30&#xa0;scenarios were considered, modeled on the basis of combinations of two nuclear energy sources (electricity from a&#xa0;nuclear power plant, thermal energy from a&#xa0;high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR)) and three hydrogen production methods (water electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, steam methane reforming). A&#xa0;quantitative assessment of the scenarios was carried out according to 14&#xa0;criteria.</p> Conclusion <p>The conducted modeling of scenarios allows the potential of nuclear-hydrogen production in the energy system to be analyzed, taking into account its structure, volumes, resource needs, etc. A&#xa0;comparative assessment of the scenarios will be presented in the next publication, “Modeling and comparative assessment of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production in Russia. Part&#xa0;2”.</p>

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Modeling and comparative assessment of scenarios for deployment of nuclear hydrogen production in russia. Part 1

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • A. L. Balanin,
  • E. A. Andrianova,
  • E. V. Rodionova,
  • P. A. Fomichenko

摘要

Background

The application of nuclear energy for hydrogen production is considered in strategic documents of both Russia and other countries. A comparative study of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production allows its potential to be analyzed and preferrable options to be selected.

Aim

To test the methodology for selecting the most preferred scenarios for the deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production.

Material and methods

Modeling of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production in Russia up to 2050 and their comparative assessment were carried out taking into account the varying importance of the evaluation criteria. The realized methodology for selecting scenarios is based on a number of multi-criteria analysis methods and involves preparing a set of evaluation criteria, forming several sets of criterion weights, calculating aggregated indicators, step-by-step selection of scenarios, analyzing the uncertainty of criterion values and sensitivity of the final selection of scenarios.

Results and discussion

30 scenarios were considered, modeled on the basis of combinations of two nuclear energy sources (electricity from a nuclear power plant, thermal energy from a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR)) and three hydrogen production methods (water electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, steam methane reforming). A quantitative assessment of the scenarios was carried out according to 14 criteria.

Conclusion

The conducted modeling of scenarios allows the potential of nuclear-hydrogen production in the energy system to be analyzed, taking into account its structure, volumes, resource needs, etc. A comparative assessment of the scenarios will be presented in the next publication, “Modeling and comparative assessment of scenarios for deployment of nuclear-hydrogen production in Russia. Part 2”.