<p>The Megamaser Cosmology Project inferred a value for the Hubble constant given by <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10509_2025_4454_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="114" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>H</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>73.9</mn> <mo>±</mo> <mn>3.0</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$H_{0}=73.9 \pm 3.0 $</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>&#xa0;km/sec/Mpc. This value was obtained using Bayesian inference by marginalizing over six nuisance parameters, corresponding to the velocities of the megamaser galaxy systems. We obtain an independent estimate of the Hubble constant with the same data using frequentist inference. For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to dispense with the aforementioned nuisance parameters. The frequentist estimate of the Hubble constant is given by <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10509_2025_4454_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="22" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="97" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>H</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mn>73.5</mn> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2.9</mn> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>+</mo> <mn>3.0</mn> </mrow> </msubsup> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$H_{0}=73.5^{+3.0}_{-2.9}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>&#xa0;km/sec/Mpc and agrees with the Bayesian estimate to within <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="10509_2025_4454_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="34" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mn>0.2</mn> <mi>σ</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$0.2\sigma $</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and both approaches also produce consistent confidence/credible intervals. Therefore, this analysis provides a proof-of-principle application of profile likelihood in dealing with nuisance parameters in cosmology, which is complementary to Bayesian analysis.</p>

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Determination of Hubble constant from Megamaser Cosmology Project using profile likelihood

  • Shubham Barua,
  • Vyaas Ramakrishnan,
  • Shantanu Desai

摘要

The Megamaser Cosmology Project inferred a value for the Hubble constant given by H 0 = 73.9 ± 3.0 $H_{0}=73.9 \pm 3.0 $  km/sec/Mpc. This value was obtained using Bayesian inference by marginalizing over six nuisance parameters, corresponding to the velocities of the megamaser galaxy systems. We obtain an independent estimate of the Hubble constant with the same data using frequentist inference. For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to dispense with the aforementioned nuisance parameters. The frequentist estimate of the Hubble constant is given by H 0 = 73.5 2.9 + 3.0 $H_{0}=73.5^{+3.0}_{-2.9}$  km/sec/Mpc and agrees with the Bayesian estimate to within 0.2 σ $0.2\sigma $ , and both approaches also produce consistent confidence/credible intervals. Therefore, this analysis provides a proof-of-principle application of profile likelihood in dealing with nuisance parameters in cosmology, which is complementary to Bayesian analysis.