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<p>Contrary to the prevailing view that automation complements skilled labor in advanced economies, this study examines the unintended consequences of robot adoption in emerging markets. Drawing on strategic human capital theory, we exploit China’s manufacturing sector as a natural experiment to identify the causal impact of industrial intelligence on firm-level innovation. Using a unique dataset of more than 90,000 public and private firms from the National Enterprise Innovation Database (2008–2014), we uncover a counterintuitive result: robot adoption significantly reduces firm innovation, which is notably more pronounced for private-owned firms and those with weaker innovation capabilities. Mediation analyses further show that this inhibitory effect operates through the degradation of firms’ talent structures, as robots substitute for the technical middle layer essential for R&amp;D absorption and knowledge integration. Moreover, two structural constraints moderate and amplify this effect. Path dependence leads firms to deploy robots to expand low-value, scale-oriented production, while high costs of imported equipment crowd out investments in human capital. Together, these findings reveal the challenges emerging economies face in converting hardware investment into innovation-driven growth without parallel talent upgrading.</p>

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Hardware without humanware: Robot adoption, talent structure degradation, and firm innovation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Wenhao Sun,
  • Zhenyu Wu,
  • Hanqing “Chevy” Fang

摘要

Contrary to the prevailing view that automation complements skilled labor in advanced economies, this study examines the unintended consequences of robot adoption in emerging markets. Drawing on strategic human capital theory, we exploit China’s manufacturing sector as a natural experiment to identify the causal impact of industrial intelligence on firm-level innovation. Using a unique dataset of more than 90,000 public and private firms from the National Enterprise Innovation Database (2008–2014), we uncover a counterintuitive result: robot adoption significantly reduces firm innovation, which is notably more pronounced for private-owned firms and those with weaker innovation capabilities. Mediation analyses further show that this inhibitory effect operates through the degradation of firms’ talent structures, as robots substitute for the technical middle layer essential for R&D absorption and knowledge integration. Moreover, two structural constraints moderate and amplify this effect. Path dependence leads firms to deploy robots to expand low-value, scale-oriented production, while high costs of imported equipment crowd out investments in human capital. Together, these findings reveal the challenges emerging economies face in converting hardware investment into innovation-driven growth without parallel talent upgrading.