<p>Early-stage decisions—those made before the establishment of new venture—are critical for firms’ long-term development due to path-dependent effects. One of the most important early choices related to the future success is whether to launch a new firm in the entrepreneur’s home industry or enter a new one. Existing research on entrepreneurial industry choice has assumed optimal decision-making and focused on objective antecedents (e.g., founders’ experience), neglecting the role of cognitive factors. This paper addresses the gap by examining how entrepreneurial overconfidence influences early-stage industry choice. Using a hand-collected sample of 573 founders from 495 Chinese listed firms established between 1992 and 2013, we find a positive and robust relationship between entrepreneurial overconfidence and the decision to change industries when starting a new firm. This relationship is particularly salient for habitual entrepreneurs but not novice entrepreneurs, and it weakens when the new industry is more competitive than the home industry. These findings contribute to entrepreneurship literature and social cognitive theory by highlighting the interplay between cognitive biases, entrepreneurial experience, and external environment in shaping crucial early-stage decisions.</p>