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<p>A rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle (EV) industry in recent times has been the result of increasing number of countries encouraging EVs in public and personal transport. As some countries race ahead in their production and export of EVs, this, in turn, has led to an intricate trade network, which is now facing mounting disruption from tariff protectionism. This study quantifies the systemic impact of these tariffs on the network’s resilience and models the dynamics of trade flow reconfiguration, an area that remains underexplored. A global EV trade network (2017–2024) was constructed and analyzed using a complex network framework. This approach incorporates a cascading failure model, which assesses node vulnerability based on economic indicators, to simulate the propagation of tariff-induced shocks. The analysis reveals a highly concentrated market where the top five hubs dominate nearly 75% of trade. This structure is resilient to random disruptions but exceptionally vulnerable to targeted interventions against its core hubs, like Germany and China. Tariff shocks trigger significant trade diversion; a simulation of the 2024 tariff hikes projects a 7.7% contraction in total trade and an accelerated restructuring toward geopolitically aligned blocs, a process described as ‘friend-shoring’. The findings provide quantitative evidence that targeted tariffs are a key driver of systemic risk and supply chain fragmentation, offering a robust framework for assessing trade policy impacts and informing resilient industrial strategies.</p>

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Resilience and restructuring of global electric vehicle supply network in response to tariffs

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月24日

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  • Kangyu Tan,
  • Rajesh Piplani,
  • Dong Li

摘要

A rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle (EV) industry in recent times has been the result of increasing number of countries encouraging EVs in public and personal transport. As some countries race ahead in their production and export of EVs, this, in turn, has led to an intricate trade network, which is now facing mounting disruption from tariff protectionism. This study quantifies the systemic impact of these tariffs on the network’s resilience and models the dynamics of trade flow reconfiguration, an area that remains underexplored. A global EV trade network (2017–2024) was constructed and analyzed using a complex network framework. This approach incorporates a cascading failure model, which assesses node vulnerability based on economic indicators, to simulate the propagation of tariff-induced shocks. The analysis reveals a highly concentrated market where the top five hubs dominate nearly 75% of trade. This structure is resilient to random disruptions but exceptionally vulnerable to targeted interventions against its core hubs, like Germany and China. Tariff shocks trigger significant trade diversion; a simulation of the 2024 tariff hikes projects a 7.7% contraction in total trade and an accelerated restructuring toward geopolitically aligned blocs, a process described as ‘friend-shoring’. The findings provide quantitative evidence that targeted tariffs are a key driver of systemic risk and supply chain fragmentation, offering a robust framework for assessing trade policy impacts and informing resilient industrial strategies.