<p>Empirical evidence has demonstrated that overconfidence will cause cognitive bias when making a newsvendor-type decision. In this paper, we propose a joint price and ordering setting to investigate whether overconfidence can account for the cognitive bias of decision-makers. In particular, to mitigate the consequence of overconfidence, we apply the distribution-free approach to study three scenarios that face uncertain demand or supply. When the demand presents randomness, two distinct models considering multiplicative and additive demand formats are analyzed. While, with random supply, we assume that the received amount of product is a fraction of initial order quantity. We first derive the biased price, order decision, and profit for the three situations. Then, comparative analysis based on the obtained theoretical results is conducted to verify the experimental conclusions drawn by the previous studies. We prove that overconfidence is indeed a plausible explanation for the cognitive bias of decision-makers under the price-setting circumstance. In addition, the two uncertainty sources will result in different effects of overconfidence on the optimal decisions. Finally, we validate the robustness of our conclusions by establishing a model with simultaneous stochastic demand and random yield.</p>

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Analysis of overconfidence effect on price-setting newsvendor problems with limited distributional information

  • Guomin Xing,
  • Yuanguang Zhong,
  • Wei Xie,
  • Jiazi Yang

摘要

Empirical evidence has demonstrated that overconfidence will cause cognitive bias when making a newsvendor-type decision. In this paper, we propose a joint price and ordering setting to investigate whether overconfidence can account for the cognitive bias of decision-makers. In particular, to mitigate the consequence of overconfidence, we apply the distribution-free approach to study three scenarios that face uncertain demand or supply. When the demand presents randomness, two distinct models considering multiplicative and additive demand formats are analyzed. While, with random supply, we assume that the received amount of product is a fraction of initial order quantity. We first derive the biased price, order decision, and profit for the three situations. Then, comparative analysis based on the obtained theoretical results is conducted to verify the experimental conclusions drawn by the previous studies. We prove that overconfidence is indeed a plausible explanation for the cognitive bias of decision-makers under the price-setting circumstance. In addition, the two uncertainty sources will result in different effects of overconfidence on the optimal decisions. Finally, we validate the robustness of our conclusions by establishing a model with simultaneous stochastic demand and random yield.